Regional Weather Outlook 1-12-17

Corn Belt weather:

  • Heavy rains over the eastern Corn Belt will total .25-1.25” today before it moves north and east; there may even be heavy thunderstorms mixed in with the rain in OH.
  • Behind the rain, a strong arctic high pressure dome is pushing down temps well below zero in the northern plains by tonight, including temps of 24-30 degrees below zero in ND; temps fall off dramatically later today-this evening in the eastern Corn Belt.
  • High pressure is over WI tomorrow and another one is over the Deep South, and moisture starts to move in between them into the OH and MS river valleys.
  • Light moisture will move over southern IL, southern IN, and MO midday Saturday and then moves north.
  • Moisture then moves up from northern MO, southern IA, into IL on Sunday morning, moving eastward across the rest of the Corn Belt.
  • From Friday night-Monday night, combined totals look like .25-1” with coverage at 75-80% of the Corn Belt.
  • The moisture likely lingers in the eastern Corn Belt on Tuesday, including IN, OH, MI, and into KY, with the all clear on Wednesday.
  • A dry period follows that activity from Wednesday-Friday in the western Corn Belt; the eastern Belt will see a secondary low come up the old frontal boundary on Thursday with another round of rains in IN and OH, as well as southeast IL, totaling .5-1.5” of moisture with coverage in those areas at 75-80%.
  • After that, a strong low develops in KS and OK late next Friday, moving into the Corn Belt with .25-.5” of rain in the western Corn Belt on Friday-Saturday.
  • It’s a very active pattern across the Corn Belt with heavier rains from now-January 23 over the eastern half of the Corn Belt.
  • Temps will be normal to above through next weekend until a massive cold air push starting on January 24.

 

Deep South weather:

  • High pressure is in control right now through the weekend, but a stormy pattern is about to emerge.
  • Moisture begins to move up the backside of the high this weekend, into east TX and east OK, curving around the topside and bringing light rains to KY on Saturday-Sunday, but the rest of the region is dry through Monday.
  • Things change on Monday night as thunderstorms fire off in east TX and OK, moving into AR and LA, and then the complex marches across the rest of the region from Tuesday-Thursday.
  • It doesn’t move quickly because of a blocking high pressure that sits right off the southeast coast, so that means multi-day totals in the western half of the region at 2” or better, and then rains of an inch try to exit the eastern Deep South later next week.
  • After moderate to heavy rains Tuesday-Friday, another batch of rains totaling .5-1.5” comes up off the Gulf Coast areas like LA, MS, AL, and GA next Friday afternoon; then another system works into the west next Saturday, worth another .25-.5” of rains.
  • People talking about dryness concerns in the south won’t have to talk about that after next week as it gets very wet.
  • Temps in the Deep South will be above normal.

 

Great Plains weather:

  • No major weather problems today-tomorrow.
  • Temps in ND and SD are very cold as strong high pressure is in control, getting from 24-30 degrees below zero tonight-tomorrow morning.
  • The cold air mass will push all the way down into OK and get temps below freezing through central OK tomorrow morning.
  • That’s key as moisture comes around the backside of the southeast high pressure dome tomorrow afternoon.
  • It starts as rain in southeast OK Friday night-Saturday, but ice concerns kick up Saturday in central and southeast KS and north central OK; ice accumulations look like 1/3” but 1-1.25” of heavy warm rains will follow ice accumulations where it shows up.
  • The prime period for ice development is Saturday morning-midday, changing over to all rains by Sunday morning.
  • Precipitation goes on from Sunday-Monday, with some of the heaviest in the central plains, pushing north as snow in NE and SD.
  • The system will exit the plains by Tuesday morning, with dry weather Tuesday-Thursday before a couple of minor lows kick out into the plains with light amounts in TX, OK, and southern KS Thursday night-Friday.
  • Temps in the great plains flirt with the freezing mark early on but then moderate to 10-20 degrees above normal in the northern plains and 5-15 above normal elsewhere.

 

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