Rain is back into the state this morning, developing overnight. Rains will be heavy at times through the day over the northern half to third of the state. Some of the heaviest rains in the northern third actually kicked off during the overnight, and through the day we will see them continue. Colder air slowly leaks into the state from the north and west today as well, as temps sneak down into the 32-35-degree range, we think most of the precipitation stays rain, but we would not completely rule out some sloppy wet snowflakes either. Accumulations are not likely, but localized flooding is today. Storminess may not reach Tuesday night’s zenith, but today will not be nice – but rather wet and blustery. Rain totals w should end up between half and 1.5” over the northern half of the state, .25”-.75 over the south, with rain hitting 90% of the state in those ranges. The map above shows cumulative rainfall through tonight.
By Friday morning, all moisture is off to the east and we see colder, drier air coming in. Temps will be freezing or below all the way down to the OH river Friday morning. We should see some sunshine, but it will be through high and mid-level clouds over most of the state. By Saturday morning, moisture is on its way back into the state. However, the weekend forecast is not anywhere near an easy call at this point. We see moisture wrapping around the top side of strong high pressure off the east coast, coming up out of the OH valley. Meanwhile, to the north, strong arctic high pressure wants to keep cold air in play. So, we could be looking at a scenario that brings rain, ice and snow into the state Saturday and Sunday. The freezing like sets up over central Indiana, which would point toward a potential for ice accumulation from central Indiana up into northern Indiana Saturday and Sunday. Moderating temps attempt to push north on Sunday, but right now, it is a model run to model run game as to where things set up. Our view at this point is to look for little to no precipitation in far northern Indiana on Saturday, with scattered rain in central and southern Indiana. We will keep a watch on Saturday for some ice in the SR 28 to US 40 geographical area. Sunday, with more moisture pushing in over larger areas, we have to keep the potential for some freezing rains anywhere from I-70 to US 24. Atmospheric profiles show temps up to 3-5 degrees Celsius while surface temps are closer to or below freezing in some of these areas – that is a recipe for freezing rain. However, we will have to take close looks at this later today and then again tomorrow before really zeroing in on the storm potential.
Monday we should see rains over the entire state, potentially .25”-.75”, and then Tuesday and Wednesday, half to 1.5” rains over the southern half of the state, with the heavy rain sagging south of the oh river valley sometime Wednesday afternoon. Lingering moisture could hold over the state into Wednesday night and Thursday, wrapping around the backside of low pressure in OH, but will only total a few tenths maximum. Clouds and more rain is back in for next Friday night into Saturday, perhaps another half to 1 inch.
Here is a thought: with all of the precipitation we have coming across the state in the next 10 days…if it were all snow – we would see the state buried under 2-3 feet. But, it’s not snow. It’s all liquid. The ice threat this weekend is the only “winter” like weather that we have…and even that is not true winter.
In the extended period, we have another strong front with half to 1.5” rain potential for the 22nd and 23rd. This will come with another strong south wind and warm air surge. But, this time around, we see a dramatic shift in temps behind the front, as strong arctic high pressure dives in. we should be much colder for the 24th and 25th, and then see a strong NW front for the 26th into the 27th that can bring snow, and nasty cold for the finish of the month