International Weather Snapshot 1-11-17

South American weather:

  • No significant change to the overall pattern in Brazil, with just scattered pop up showers through the end of this week in most key crop areas.
  • Some better thunderstorm development possible in Parana and Sao Paulo areas along the coast.
  • If you combine all key growing areas from now-the weekend, totals will be .5-1.5” of rains, which is actually slightly below normal.
  • Better precipitation will come together Saturday in Minas Gerais and will lift north into Bahia, so those very dry areas will pick up nice rains on Saturday, totaling .5-1.5” with 75-80% coverage.
  • A better frontal boundary setup moves in by early next week, with better precipitation Monday-Wednesday, moving from Matto Grosso do Sul up through Matto Grosso, with two day totals on Monday-Tuesday of .5-1” and 75% coverage in those areas.
  • The plume of moisture will get stronger further east, from Rio Grande do Sul through southeast Brazil, up through Goias, they’ll see .5-1.5” rain totals Tuesday-early Thursday.
  • The action then shifts back west to finish next week, Thursday-Friday, with rains of 1-2” over Matto Grosso Thursday afternoon with 90% coverage.
  • The active pattern continues with thunderstorms through the end of next weekend; not reallly frontal based but just good convection over Matto Grosso, MGDS, with those areas finishing the week with another .5-1” of rains.
  • Good rain totals over the next 10 days with 85-90% coverage of 2-3” rains.
  • Temps are mostly normal to slightly above, with a warming trend ahead for the 11-16 day forecast, but it doesn’t look like excessive heat.
  • Strong precipitation is in the forecast for the rest of this week in Argentina up in the far northern parts, which is outside of most key growing areas.
  • There won’t be much rain in key areas from today-Friday, but Friday night-Saturday, a front sweeps through the northern half of the country, including northern Santa Fe and areas to the north.
  • Totals look like .25-1.5” and coverage will be 75-80% of the northern third of Argentina.
  • The central third sees about 30% coverage as the rains really park over the northern third of the country on Sunday-Monday.
  • Mostly dry weather will start the week on Monday-Wednesday, before a better system comes together over the second half of the week, starting wednsday in southern La Pampa, southern Cordoba, beforer heading northeast, hitting all areas that didn’t get any of the rains that fell this weekend.
  • The central and southern thirds of all growing areas will get .5-2” totals with 80-90% coverage in those areas; it does head north but falls apart a bit, so they’ll see lesser amounts up there.
  • Over the next ten days, they’ll see really good rainfall spread over all Argentina growing areas and coverage will be at 100%, with at least 1-2” totals.
  • Temps will be normal to slightly below in Argentina.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea region:

  • Warmer air is moving in over the next few days and cold temps over the region should ease quickly by this weekend.
  • They’ll see well above normal temps, right at freezing and above, and any systems that come in will be all rain.
  • Temps fall back into the single digits by Saturday afternoon, so snow is possible in Ukraine and central/southern Russia into early next week.
  • Temps in the single digits and below zero from Sunday-Tuesday, so if the snow does melt, it’ll be talked about a lot in the markets.
  • I don’t think it will lead to wide ranging winterkill, but the roller coaster temps are something to keep an eye on.
  • No over the top moisture over the next ten days

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