Regional Weather Outlook 1-11-17

Corn Belt Weather:

  • One strong storm is exiting to the east and things stay dry for 8 hours, and then south winds bring another wave of action to areas east of the MS River late this afternoon-tomorrow.
  • Low pressure moves through central IL tonight and head northeast; a fairly strong front extends out from it and a secondary low will travel right up that track on Thursday.
  • This brings rains of .25-1.25” across IL, IN, OH, and lower MI, with coverage at 75-80%.
  • Strong high pressure comes in behind the front on Thursday night-Friday bringing in well below normal temps across the Corn Belt, pushing temps below zero down to I-80 on Friday afternoon-night before they retreat quickly.
  • The weekend could be soggy witih high pressure domes to the north and south, so moisture rotates around them and comes through parts of MO, southern IL, and southern IN, with scattered light precipitation falling mostly as snow, but there could be some ice in southern MO.
  • The precipitation should dwindle away Saturday night-Sunday as it gets wrapped into a strong circulation in the central plains that starts Monday.
  • That circulation kicks out of the plains late Monday night-Tuesday with showers in the western Belt, heading northeast as mostly liquid precipitation totaling .25-.75” with coverage at 75-80%.
  • In the Upper Midwest, including MN, WI, and northern IA, there will likely be several inches of snow from Tuesday-Wednesday.
  • Heavy thunderstorms will fire up as the system moves across the rest of the Corn Belt on Wednesday, with 1-1.5” of rain in eastern IL, IN, and OH from Tuesday night-Wednesday.
  • Thursday and Friday next week look dry before strong south winds crank up on Saturday will bring plenty of moisture up from the Gulf; while temps go well above normal, we also see a big push of rain across the Corn Belt January 21-22, with snows in the Upper Midwest near the Canada border.
  • Rain totals will be .5-1.5” of rain over 75-80% of the Corn Belt, with cold air to move in behind it.
  • The Corn Belt may be in for a push of major cold air at the end of the month, coming down from the Canadian prairies January 24-26.
  • More liquid precipitation between now and then with mostly above normal temps.

 

Deep South weather:

  • Strong gusty winds are howling over the South today-tomorrow with precipitation mostly staying north, including KY and WV.
  • A cool front tries to work through at the end of the week, overnight tomorrow night-Friday, as scattered showers and thunderstorms work into AR and TN, totaling .25-1” with thunderstorm development.
  • The big story is what develops this weekend; Strong high pressure sits just off the southeast coast Friday night-Saturday, rotating moisture up the backside in east TX, AR, and southern MO see moisture develop by Friday afternoon.
  • A lot of it should be liquid but cold air is diving down into KS and OK, so AR might see some ice sneak in there.
  • Weekend rains in AR will be .25-.5” but most of it won’t move over the rest of the Deep South yet.
  • That will start to change by Monday-Tuesday, as a significant low kicks out to the north and east, dragging a cold front across the region from west to east, hitting everyone from Monday-Wednesday.
  • Moisture off the Gulf will enhance the front, so rain totals Monday-Wednesday will be .5-2” with 100% coverage in the region.
  • Decent winds off the Gulf won’t bring any additional rains Thursday-Saturday as things should stay dry.
  • A strong front in the extended forecast January 22-23 looks like it may bring .5-2” totals to 90% of the Deep South.
  • Temps will be above normal in the Deep South.

 

Great Plains weather:

  • No major weather issues ahead for today-tomorrow, but low pressure starts to kick out into TX and OK on Thursday-Friday but it won’t be able to grab a lot of moisture to work with.
  • The key to the weather will be strong high pressure parked of the southeast coast of the U.S., and moisture rotates around it into east TX and southeast OK on Friday morning with scattered rain showers there.
  • Liquid precipitation will kick it off on Friday morning, but cold air will advance south through the plains, pushing the freezing zone into southern OK by Friday night.
  • That means as the moisture still rotates through, there could be ice in southeast KS and northeast OK by the end of Friday.
  • The further north you go, the more snow you’ll see, starting near the Kansas Turnpike.
  • Temps try to moderate by later Saturday in southeast OK, but the heaviest precipitation will be in central OK and temps right at freezing may mean ice there on Saturday.
  • The moisture will surge northward on Saturday night-Sunday, which may mean some ice will start to form along the KS-OK border.
  • Significant moisture will continue north out of TX and into OK and KS on Sunday, and if there is going to be a major ice storm, this is when it will occur in the central and southern plains.
  • Heavy thunderstorms in TX likely bring 1-2” rain totals.
  • I won’t say they’re going to miss out on ice, but I can’t yet say it’s going to be a significant ice storm.
  • Will all the action in the central and south, really nothing is happening in the northern plains.
  • High pressure sits over the north with bitter cold in play into the weekend, but then temps moderate a bit as the dry air holds through Wednesday of next week.
  • The rain, snow, and ice moves out of the central and southern plains by Tuesday morning, so the entire plains will be dry Tuesday-Thursday.
  • Temps will move to normal and above, with no reallly siginficant precipitation moving back into the plains until next Friday.

 

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