Regional Weather Outlook 1-10-17

Corn Belt weather:

  • An upper level disturbance is moving through the northeast Corn Belt this morning, with WI and MI picking up snow along with light freezing rain, and this system will continue to grow.
  • They’ll see a strong low pressure circulation over northern Lake MI this afternoon with significant moisture, and snows will fall in WI, rain in MI, and more rain across IL and IN.
  • Moisture totals not impressive right now with .25-.5” out of it before it moves away.
  • A slight push of colder air comes in on north winds, but it’ll be short lived as another wave comes out of the old cold front along the OH River valley along with KY and TN, and then low pressure moves into IL by tomorrow evening.
  • This will put down rain in the Corn Belt east of the MS River, including light amounts in IL, but heavier amounts fall in IN, OH, and lower MI, with rains there totaling .25-1”.
  • Temps in IN may be down to 32-35 degrees and that may mean some freezing rain falling in IN and northwest OH.
  • 2 day totals out of the event may add up today and tonight, plus tomorrow night-Thursday, looking like .5-1.25” of liquid equivalent.
  • Strong high pressure follows this in as an arctic high, pushing temps way below normal in the Upper Midwest, with those cold temps reaching the I-80 corridor.
  • As it slides to the east, moisture comes up the top and backside of high pressure sitting over the Deep South, drawing through the MO boot heel along with southern IL and southern IN Friday night-Saturday.
  • That same setup is in play this weekend, adding .5-1.5” in the OH River valley over 3-4 days, farther north they’ll see .25-.75”, with the only question being how much rain and how much snow.
  • A significant system moves out of the plains and into the Corn Belt Monday-Tuesday with a good batch of rain totaling .25-.5” from I-80 southward and a couple inches of snow from I-80 northward.
  • Strong high pressure comes in behind it, but it’s not an arctic high, with temps staying above normal to finish out next week, likely a January thaw across the Corn Belt.

 

Deep South weather:

  • The Deep South is seeing gusty winds here today, especially through the mid and lower MS River valley, where the winds are howling.
  • A few showers may pop up this evening in the northwest part of the region, northern AR, western TN, and western KY.
  • Scattered showers move through TN and KY totaling .25” or less tonight.
  • Lingering moisture remains at the Mason Dixon line tomorrow evening before a frontal boundary complex tries to sag through but may not quite make it.
  • A strong high sitting just off the Atlantic coast will cause everything to die out as it moves through the region.
  • As an arctic high digs into the Corn Belt, the high off the coast moves back inland to SC and GA, taking full control of the region Friday-Sunday, pushing moisture farther north into KY and staying there.
  • Moisture then comes around the backside of the high and up through the OH River valley over the weekend, keeping the Deep South dry, except for a few showers moving through AR and the MO boot heel.
  • Next week, that high still sits over the region but gets kicked out by a strong front coming out of the plains on Monday, as showers and thunderstorms move through AR into LA, with totals west of the MS River at .5-1” of moisture.
  • Will it hold east of the river? Maybe… It should kick into gear Tuesday night-Wednesday, dragging the moisture with it across MS, AL, and into GA on Wednesday-Thursday, with totals of .5-1.5” combined with 85-90% coverage in the region.
  • No massive cool down is coming in behind the activity as temps stay normal to above to finish next week and go into the weekend.

 

Great Plains weather:

  • Fairly calm in the plains with some light snow trying to exit ND and SD this morning and cold air is advancing, with temps below zero in the Dakotas over the next couple of days.
  • Won’t see that same story farther south as winds have moderated temps over KS and southern NE, and gusty winds will kick up where the cold air runs into the warmer air, making a tight temperature gradient through tomorrow.
  • This weekend will be interesting as many folks are jumping all over the major ice storm angle this weekend.
  • Strong high pressure over the Deep South and moisture is coming around the backside and over the top into the central plains, the MO River valley and OH River valley.
  • That could lead to some ice but there isn’t a lot of organization to it just yet, so I’m not sure it’s going to be an epic ice storm for sure.
  • The best liquid will fall further to the south in eastern OK, northern TX, and southwest MO, Friday night-Saturday, which means it won’t be a wide ranging event.
  • The moisture stays in those areas and temps will be 32-35, so it could flip back and forth from rain to freezing rain, before the 32 degree temp line moves back north on Saturday.
  • That means it should transition to all rain in TX and OK on Saturday, so we may have to see if it flips back to more frozen rain during the overnight hours on Saturday night-Sunday morning.
  • Another area of concern is KS as the moisture moves farther north on Sunday morning.
  • Yes, there is potential for ice and freezing rain, but it could also trigger some snow, so we’ll keep a close eye on this going forward.
  • Once the system moves out, strong high pressure will move in on Monday night and give a dry scenario to most of the plains, with sunny skies and temps normal to above.

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