International Weather Snapshot 1-17-17

South America weather:

  • There’s more pop up thunderstorm action in Brazil today-tomorrow in southeast Brazil, with Sao Paulo the focal point and some action in Parana.
  • A plume of moisture will move up from this action into eastern Matto Grosso, which hits a lot of the main soybean growing areas.
  • Some heavier thunderstorms may pop up over central and western Matto Grosso on Thursday afternoon before the mositure lingers in the western part of the state.
  • From Sao Paulo through Goias, through Matto Grosso and down to the south and west, those areas see 1-3” of rain combined with 85-90% coverage.
  • That corridor of moisture holds through the weekend into early next week, but they don’t see rains in northeast Brazil.
  • The moisture doesn’t look to be as intense from Tuesday-Thursday of next week and beyond as things look to turn net drying during that time frame.
  • By next Wednesday night-Thursday, a front comes out of Argentina and Paraguay, sweeping across Brazil, so the second half of next week could see 1-2.5” totals with 80% coverage in key crop areas.
  • Bahia and Minas Gerais likely don’t see much moisture so dryness will become the talk again in northeast Brazil.
  • Temps in Brazil will be normal to slightly above, but northeast Brazil is really going to warm up so there will be some heat stress on crops, about 10% of the overall crop will feel that stress.
  • Some moderate to heavy rains fell in parts of central Argentina areas that saw the really heavy rains a couple weeks ago, including Entre Rios and Santa Fe, which make up 10% of Argentina’s growing areas.
  • It should be dry for most of today and tomorrow, with rains holding off until Thursday night-Friday, when a few scattered showers pop up over Buenos Aires province and into southern Cordoba.
  • Totals there will be .25-.75” in those areas with coverage at 60%.
  • The showers don’t move much until the weekend, settling back to the south and west on Saturday night-Sunday into La Pampa.
  • It looks like nice light rains over a 2-3 day period in southern Argentina which has been a little bit drier than the rest of the country.
  • No rains fall furthern north, giving good dry down potential to some areas hit by heavier rains, including Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and areas north.
  • By Tuesday-Thursday next week, there is a better chance of rain in the northern areas but totals don’t look over the top, .25-.75” maximum with 75% coverage.
  • A dominant high pressure dome moves in Wednesday night-Thursday, holding through the rest of next week and into the following week, with excellent dry down potential.
  • We have had serious moisture in parts of Argentina but it hasn’t fallen in a new place, and there will be net drying over most of Argentina this week before nice showers fall in southern regions.
  • Next week, moisture comes into most areas right on time to keep the crops moving in the right direction.
  • Temps in Argentina will be normal to slightly below, but with the high pressure domes moving in, they likely trend a little above normal soon.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea regions:

  • Temps are above normal over a good part of the area with dry weather to start the week over Ukraine as high pressure moves out of Europe and over the region, settling across Russia.
  • There isn’t a lot of significant moisture this week, as the high is in control and it’s a warm high, with no major cold air incursions in the short term.
  • Light snow/light rain may move through the region Saturday, hitting central Russia with very light totals.
  • Another dominant high moves over Ukraine after that and into central Russia to finish the weekend and go through next week.
  • There isn’t a lot of moisture over the ten day period, but there will be a strong front moving through late next week but still only bring light totals to central Russia, while most of the stronger action falls farther north out of key growing areas.
  • There are going to be strong winds and warm temps with two significant high pressure domes late next week, so gusty winds could be a problem for some of the wheat crop as the snow pack has mostly gone away.
  • The good to excellent category may pull back a bit because of these conditions.

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