Regional Weather Outlook 1-17-17

Corn Belt weather:

  • Strong low pressure is lifting across the Corn Belt, tracking through IA, IL, and lifting north and east with a line of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Corn Belt this morning.
  • Heavy rains are falling in these areas and all moisture should be done this afternoon and be followed by high pressure, but not before rain totals are .25-.75” with heavier amounts a possibility.
  • High pressure will be in control from tomorrow-early Thursday, with temps staying close to and slightly above normal.
  • Another round of moisture is developing in east TX, LA,and the lower MS River valley on Wednesday night-Thursday, with the circulation getting stronger Thursday afternoon-night, and moisture heading up the MS River valley to the confluence of the OH and MS rivers.
  • Thursday night-Friday, the low moves into southern IN, bringing rain to the eastern Corn Belt, east of the MS River valley Thursday night-Friday night, with rain totals of .25-.75” with 75% coverage east of the MS River and nothing to the west.
  • Another low kicks out of the central plains on Saturday with light rain and snow over the Upper Midwest, including MN, northern IA, and WI, totaling .3” or less, but a second low comes out of the plains and follows the exact same track from KS into MO on Sunday.
  • It brings moisture to MO and southern IA before tracking east and becoming more powerful, affecting the eastern part of the country, bring .25-1.5” of rain over the entire eastern US.
  • Heavier rains fall Sunday night-Monday in southwest IN, western KY, and southern IL, totaling 1-2” of rain with very strong winds.
  • Combined from Sunday-Tuesday, rains amounts in the Corn Belt should be .5-1.5” and coverage will be 75%.
  • The active pattern will keep going with another system behind it, coming out of the plains on Wednesday, into IA, and MN with .25-.75” rains and 75% coverage, tracking east into the Great Lakes on Wednesday night-Thursday with the same kind of totals with 60% coverage.
  • That last system does begin to draw down some colder air by the end of next week, meaning the next system in the extended forecast will be snow on January 29.
  • Temps will be normal to above normal over the next 7-10 days, but we’ll still pay for it with more cold air through the rest of the winter season.

 

Deep South weather:

  • A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving across the Deep South today-tomorrow, associatied with a strong low workin out of the Corn Belt, bringing rains of .25-.5” in the short term.
  • Much stronger action develops later this week with a significant line of thunderstorms developing tomorrow in east TX, moving into AR and LA, staying mostly west of the MS River valley tomorrow afternoon-evening.
  • It’ll cross the MS River on Thursday and moves east with heavy rains and severe weather possibly as it moves through MS, AL, and into western TN before marching across the rest of the region.
  • Combined from tomorrow-Friday afternoon, rain totals will be .5-2” or more with 85% coverage, with the heaviest rain totals of 1-2.5” out in the western part of the region, and the lower totals out east in GA and NC/SC.
  • Another system will move across the Gulf Coast areas on Saturday as showers and thunderstorms move into LA, southern MS, southern AL, and GA, but doesn’t push nearly as far north, but rains in the south will be persistent.\
  • The rains continue Saturday-Sunday before turning into a massive circulation Sunday night-early Tuesday over the entire region, so totals from Saturday-Tuesday will be 1-2.5” rains over 90% of the Deep South.
  • A system late next week up north swings a cool front through the Deep South with nothing more than sprinkles and then high pressure finally follows that in Friday-Saturday with some drier air.
  • Temps will be normal to above as south flow off the coast fuels the moisture but it also brings warm temps.

 

Great Plains weather:

  • High pressure is over ND/SD right now keeping things pretty quiet today as storms that caused problems over the weekend continues to move east.
  • Moisture starts to develop over TX tomorrow totaling .25-.5” but it doesn’t get farther north, so the rest of the plains look good through Wednsday.
  • The plains stay dry Thursday-Friday before a little light moisture moves out of the Rockies on Friday-Saturday, bringing mostly sprinkles to eastern SD and eastern NE.
  • Moisture will develop in the Four Corners area of the desert southwest, but won’t kick out right away, waiting until Saturday night-Sunday to move into OK and KS with totals of .25” or less, but there is good circulation so coverage in those areas will be 60% before it moves east and gets bigger.
  • The next system moves into the plains Tuesday night-Wednesday as low pressure moves into NE and KS with strong winds of 20-40 mph and higher, with the precipitation developing on the northwest side of the low.
  • This will be in colder air, so it raises the possiblity of blizzard conditions in NE, northeast CO, southern SD, and northwest KS, but there is still plenty of time for this to change.
  • As it moves east into the Corn Belt, high pressure follows it in and drags colder air into the region, but not necessarily an arctic push; it does take the freezing line down into OK and central TX next Thursday.
  • The pattern may clear out after that as there isn’t anything dramatic showing up in the western part of the country after that.
  • Temps in the plains are mostly normal to a bit above before the cold air takes it back down to near normal next week but likely not a lot below normal.

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