Regional Weather Outlook 1-19-17

Corn Belt weather:

  • A very active pattern continues in the Corn Belt as strong low pressure develops today in the mid and lower MS River valley and bring moisture up into the eastern Corn Belt late this afternoon-tomorrow.
  • Totals will be .25-.75” mostly east of the MS River, including IL, IN, OH, and MI, with 80-90% coverage in those areas.
  • A slight dry down starts tomorrow afternoon-Saturday before moisture tries to move back in on Sunday as part of a massive low in the Deep South, but latest model runs actually take the track a little farther south, meaning many areas in the Corn Belt may miss out.
  • .25-.5” is still possible in IN, OH, and MI, but coverage may only be 40% as the low may track a little farther south and east.
  • Strong north winds start to draw down cooler air over the western Corn Belt late in the weekend/early next week, but it doesn’t look like a massive cool down with well below normal temps.
  • Monday-Wednesday, a low kicks out of the central plains into the western Corn Belt, bringing totals of .25-.5” but it is coming into some cooler air, so that means snow developing in western IA and southern MN Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday from I-80 northward, and rain falling in west central IL and northern MO.
  • A strong high will follow that, coming down out of Canada and over the great plains, bringing colder air into the Corn Belt late next week, taking temps closer to normal but not much below normal, holding through next Saturday-Sunday.
  • By next Saturday, the surface map in the western part of the country shows nothing at all, so after an active forecast period, the pattern looks much less active by late next week, potentially opening the door for stronger and colder high pressure to be moving in.
  • The extended forecast window finds the models with a high degree of difference, with the European model showing a cooler trend with temps normal to a bit below, and the GFS model shows a big upper level ridge developing over the western US that would bring warmer air in if it translates eastward into the Corn Belt by early February.
  • I tend to prefer the colder solution as that’s where we have been and likely will stay there until proven otherwise.

 

Deep South weather:

  • Heavy moisture is developing this morning in the lower MS River valley, including AR, LA, and western MS, where they’re picking up moderate to heavy rains with big thunderstorms firing up later today-this evening, bringing strong to severe weather.
  • The precipitation will move eastward tonight-early Friday, leaving behind totals of .5-2” with 60% coverage.
  • The moisture will re-fire on Saturday morning, bringing another big batch of rain and thunderstorms over LA and MS early Saturday morning before moving all the way east into NC, SC, and VA.
  • A strong low comes out of this and develops a stronger secondary circulation Sunday-Monday; overall, there’s strong rain and thunderstorm activity from Saturday-Monday afternoon (strong gusty winds from Sunday-Monday) with rains totaling 1-3” out of the two waves of activity over 80% of the Deep South.
  • 20-40 mph winds will be possible on Monday over TN, NC, SC, and GA.
  • The system moves out by Monday night, with decent weather moving in behind it as Tuesday looks nice over the region and sunshine/blue sky will hang around for most of the rest of the week.
  • Low pressure will pass by to the north of the region on Wednesday but otherwise, there shouldn’t be any major weather issues for the rest of the week.
  • A weak front may try to slide through east/southeast parts of the region at midday on Thursday, leaving behind .25-.5” in GA, SC, and the FL panhandle.
  • High pressure then parks right over the Deep South on Friday and holds through next weekend.
  • Temps will continue to be normal to above normal.

 

Great Plains weather:

  • It should be fairly calm through the end of the week, today-Saturday, with high pressure in control and not much in the way of precipitation.
  • Moisture does come together in the Four Corners region tomorrow and that’s something to watch as it likely will kick out later in the weekend.
  • Minor low pressure moves over KS later Saturday afternoon-night with just a few sprinkles in southeast NE and northeast KS.
  • A strong low works toward the region from the west coast, coming together and kicking out into the great plains early next week.
  • Monday-Tuesday, the low comes across KS into NE, putting down a few hundredths to .2” liquid equivalent, before a secondary low kicks out over NE and KS on Tuesday, potentially bringing 3-6” of snow to NE, with lesser amounts in northeast WY, southeast CO, and really nothing in KS, OK, and TX.
  • Later next week, cold air does want to drop south out of Canada, with several strong surface highs exiting the Canadian prairies over the second half of next week, bringing temps back closer to normal and somewhat below.
  • There won’t be a lot of precipitation with the colder temps, just some light snows in the northern plains late Thursday-Friday.
  • The dry period likely stays into the week after next, with sunny and dry weather hanging around into early February.

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