International Weather Snapshot 1-19-17

South America weather:

  • A line of moderate to heavy thunderstorms is working from Matto Grosso down through Sao Paulo to start today, with this plume of moisture not really going away quickly over the next few days.
  • A line of moisture will continue from Matto Grosso down through southeast Brazil through the weekend, with moisture totals from now-late Sunday at 1-2.5” and 80% coverage of most of Brazil crop areas; unfortunately, the area that’s missed out is the dry areas of the northeast part of the country.
  • Nice hit and miss moisture develops next week, Monday-Wednesday, mostly just heat based in nature.
  • From mid to late next week, a front brings a big cluster of action will through almost all Brazil crop areas, with heavy rains just west of Matto Grosso late next week, and even north/northeast Brazil areas are going to get some relief from dry weather.
  • Combined totals will be another 1-3” through the second half of next week, which means precipitation totals will be near normal through the upcoming 10-day forecast window.
  • Temps will be normal to slightly above, which should lead to good harvest windows as most of the popup action will only cover about 30% on any given day.
  • Combines were rolling heavy in Matto Grosso yesterday and expect to see that through the weekend, with harvest possibly getting started in Goias and Minas Gerais, as well as Matto Grosso do Sul.
  • Continued harvest windows will combine with rains that will aid continued crop growth and development.
  • Argentina looks to be transitioning into a drier forecast pattern after seeing some heavy rains fall in certain areas of the country.
  • High pressure is moving in to dominate all of the country as a whole, with only a few scattered showers in Buenos Aires province tomorrow night-early Saturday, totaling .25” or less and coverage of 30% at best.
  • There may be a few showers just south of BA on Saturday night, but there won’t be anything that sweeps through all Argentina growing areas.
  • Scattered showers will kick off next week in the extreme northern quarter of the region on Monday afternoon but won’t hit a lot of key crop areas.
  • A round of thunderstorms moves through BA Monday night-Tuesday, but nothing else through the central part of the country at all.
  • High pressure is back in by next Wednesday, holding through the following weekend, with the areas hit hardest by rains over the last ten days picking up next to nothing over the next 7-10 days.
  • Temps will continue to be normal to slightly below in the short term, but the high pressure areas at the end of the 10-day period will bring temps to normal to slightly above.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea region:

  • Moderating temps continue with 32 degrees or higher over Ukraine and central/southern Russia.
  • No major cold air incursions are expected, with not much precipitation expected either; a little light rain/snow tomorrow night-Saturday morning in central Russia, totaling .15” or less.
  • Ukraine won’t see much precipitation through the weekend, but the region does see gusty winds from Sunday night-Monday; shouldn’t be a big deal but wheat typically doesn’t like really windy/dry conditions.
  • Monday-Tuesday will see another shot of moisture totaling .03” but it’s still some moisture.
  • Don’t see much cold air in play as south winds will keep the region warmer next week, so temps will be above normal and precipitation will be below normal.
  • Next Wednesday-Thursday, we see a more active pattern starting to develop with a couple waves of mositure coming through.
  • They’ll be worth .25-.5” with coverage at 60-70% of central/southern Ukraine, but the second system next week probably does open the door to some sub zero temps dropping down out of northern Russia, working into eastern Ukraine and central Russia.
  • Precipitation in the southern region combined with cold air might mean some snow cover redeveloping.
  • If it doesn’t redevelop, temps below zero next weekend could trigger some talk of winterkill in the region. I’m not sure it’ll be warranted just yet but it does get colder moving from January to February.

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