Regional Weather Outlook 1-20-17

Corn Belt weather:

  • Rain is moving out of the eastern Corn Belt and should be all but gone by noon, leaving behind .25-.75” of moisture combined over IN, OH, and MI.
  • Weak low pressure doesn’t completely go away as we have a low that moves through the Upper Midwest tonight-tomorrow, including WI, southern MN, and IA, bringing light rains/sloppy wet snow by tomorrow morning.
  • Another area of low pressure tries to work into the Upper Midwest on Sunday afternoon.
  • A powerful low in the Deep South starts to throw moisture into the MO valley by the end of the weekend/early next week, working its way into southern IL, southern IN, and the rest of the eastern Corn Belt, with overall coverage at 30%, including the boot heel of MO, extreme southern IL, IN, OH, and MI.
  • By the middle of next week, Wednesday-Thursday, low pressure moves out of the central plains and into the western Corn Belt, bringing a fairly significant swath of snow to IA, southern MN, WI, and northern IL, starting on Tuesday night-Thursday.
  • Snow totals could be 3-6” in southern MN and northwest IA, but temps could also be warm enough to trigger some rain too, and the track of this low brings precipitation to 50% of the Corn Belt; it will miss the southern and eastern sections that picked up rain earlier in the week.
  • Strong north winds move in on the backside of that system for Thursday-Friday, drawing down some colder air, putting temps back closer to where they should be but not necessarily below normal.
  • Temps do stay above normal for most of the rest of this month, but it is January so that’s still going to be cool.
  • Through the rest of the 10-day period, there won’t be a lot of major precipitation over most Corn Belt areas from Thursday-Sunday.
  • Going into the week after next weekend, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of disturbed weather over the western part of the country, so it’s possible the weather will move into a calmer and more tranquil period.
  • There is a large arctic high developing up in Canada for the first time in a while and if it does break loose and move south, that would be a massive cold air blast; I’m not ready to say it’s going to yet, but it is the first time in about 10-14 days we’ve seen a strong high cooling up north.

 

Deep South weather:

  • A strong frontal complex is working through the eastern half of the region this morning, with heavy rains still possible in NC, SC, and GA, but it should be gone by midday.
  • Another significant swath of rain and thunderstorms develops around two low pressure areas on Saturday-Sunday, with continued rotation on Monday-Tuesday.
  • It’ll be a massive circulation, with rain totals of 1-3” over the 3-4-day period with 80% coverage in the region; remember, on any given day there will be some significant holes in coverage area.
  • For example, Saturday night-Sunday, places like LA, southern MS, and east TX, won’t be quite as active while they see strong thunderstorms in other locations; the heaviest rains might fall in NC and SC from Monday-Tuesday.
  • Very gusty winds of 20-40 mph will be with this system too.
  • Around midweek, a system passes by to the north but the Deep South will miss out, with sunshine and blue skies the rule from Tuesday-Thursday.
  • A weak front on Thursday afternoon may trigger a few scattered showers in NC, SC, and GA.
  • The rest of the week and weekend should be dry with high pressure in control, expanding from TX into the rest of the region; even if it doesn’t expand all the way, there will be enough high pressure to keep the area dry from next Friday-Tuesday of the following week.
  • Temps will be cool but not exceptionally cold.

 

Great Plains weather:

  • There isn’t a lot happening today but low pressure will be something to watch in the plains
  • There could be a few sprinkles in parts of NE, KS, and SD this afternoon because of a weak low this afternoon.
  • Several waves of energy move across the plains over the weekend, with the first one moving over the southern plains on Saturday-Sunday, bringing scattered showers to OK and TX with coverage at 25-40% and moisture totals of a quarter to one-third of an inch or less.
  • Another area of low pressure moves out of the Four Corners region early next week, creating a big batch of precipitation in the central Rockies and into the central plains, but there won’t be a large-scale moisture source from the Gulf of Mexico, which means there will be a lot of moisture on top/backside of low moving through NE and SD, but not much to the south side of the low.
  • There won’t be a lot of precipitation in southern KS, OK, or TX.
  • Snows early next week look like 3-6” or better in NE and southern SD; a coating to 3” possible in northeast CO and some in northwest KS; these totals are dependent on the track of the low so these are just working numbers right now.
  • Other than sprinkles this weekend, we don’t see a lot of precipitation in the northern plains.
  • After the midweek system moves out, we see dry high pressure moving in Thursday and holding through Monday of the following week.
  • Keep an eye on that arctic high in Manitoba as it still could make its way northern ND next Tuesday-Wednesday if things go just right.

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