A damp feel again today over the state, even though we likely will not see significant moisture in over the state. Clouds hold firm in many areas, but we can see slightly better chances of breaks in those clouds over southwestern and western Indiana as the day wears on. Temps remain above normal today.
Tomorrow we start to see a fairly strong circulation passing by to the north and west of the state, over WI, northern IL and MI. this will bring clouds down into the state again, and could trigger some spits, sprinkles and drizzle over the northern third to northern quarter of the state. Totals will be nothing more than a few hundredths, but may be noticeable in those areas. Nothing expected south, and in fact we may see some sun over the southern half of the state. Lingering moisture on the backside of the circulation for Thursday may trigger some sloppy wet snowflakes over the northern half of the state, but nothing that amounts to any serious accumulation. However, the chances of snow for Thursday are a little better than we were seeing 24 hours ago. Coverage will be about 30% of the state, skewed north. The map above shows one model’s potential snow accumulations for Thursday through Friday morning. This is probably just a little bit overdone on state wide coverage, but the lake enhancement areas are about right.
Dry weather comes in for Friday and holds all the way through next week. However, we likely will have clouds and a somewhat dreary feel for the start of that period Friday, and perhaps into Saturday. Temps remain normal to above normal, and eventually high pressure will dominate from the second half of the weekend through next week.
The extended period is trending colder, although some models are reluctant to swing fully that way. However, the expectation is that we see temps back to normal and below normal levels once we get past the weekend of the 4th and 5th. WE do not see any significant frontal passages in there, at least in regards to precipitation. Minor light snows can come with a weak wave for the 5th and then we see a stronger system trying to develop out of that for the 6th into the 7th. However, tracks range from staying well south and east of the area to making a direct hit. So, until we get some better consensus…we are going to run our forecast toward the drier side, thinking this upcoming drier push will hold as the cold air arrives, and keeps action just outside of our region. But…there is plenty of wiggle room here, and we think ultimately, the pattern could swing back to a very active one as we get closer to mid-February.