International Weather Snapshot 1-23-17

South America weather:

  • Scattered moisture is moving over Brazil to start the week, especially in the western half of the country.
  • Rain totals will be .25-1.5” today in Matto Grosso, down through Matto Grosso do Sul, into Parana and Sao Paulo.
  • The scattered hit and miss action will continue through Wednesday night, possibly adding another .25-.5” of moisture with 80% coverage through the period.
  • A much more organized frontal boundary complex will come together Thursday-Friday, from Matto Grosso through western Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, and Parana, with 1-2” rains across Matto Grosso and Goias on Thursday-Friday.
  • The moisture tries to sag west and south, moving away from key crop areas by the end of the week and weekend, holding near the southern border of Matto Grosso and through MGDS over the weekend.
  • It might be a challenge as harvest is underway in Matto Grosso, but harvest really hasn’t started yet in other areas.
  • From late Sunday night-Thursday, the pattern is turning drier with very little precipitation falling in Brazil, which should get harvest up and running in all areas.
  • Sunday night-Thursday night won’t see much more than .5” or less over 30% of Brazil.
  • Temps should be mostly near normal in Brazil, but they will be above normal in the drier areas of Brazil up in the northeast, including Bahia and northern Minas Gerais.
  • The rest of Brazil will be mostly normal to slightly below during daytime hours and normal to slightly above in the nighttime hours.
  • In Argentina, things are transitioning into a somewhat drier pattern; a few scattered showers and thunderstorms are trying to move through Buenos Aires province this morning, worth .5-1” in spots, but should dissipate quickly.
  • A better front develops through the day tomorrow, with minor showers starting in Cordoba, northern La Pampa, and BA, lifting north and east with .25-.3” over 40% of growing areas.
  • Strong high pressure is over BA on Thursday-Friday this week, keeping the area dry through the weekend, and the next chance of precipitation holds off until next week.
  • Showers hit eastern BA next Tuesday morning but then head out over the ocean.
  • There will be some offshoot showers in Entre Rios, Santa Fe, and into Chaco from Tuesday night-Wednesday of next week, with totals of .25-.5” and coverage at 60% of Argentina’s growing areas from Wednesday night-Thursday.
  • Another strong high pressure dome moves in late next week and into the following week, so all the wetness in Argentina should go away quickly.
  • Temps in Argentina should be normal to slightly above, but it shouldn’t be runaway heat.
  • Cooler air does sneak into the south later this week, maybe 6-8 degrees below normal, before warmer air builds back in next week.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea region

  • Gusty winds will be the story through a good chunk of this week.
  • A massive high pressure dome will bring down some cooler air this week, with single digit temps in the overnight and near freezing during the day.
  • There isn’t a lot of precipitation ahead, but there will be a strong circulation coming into the heart of Russia tomorrow night-Wednesday, bringing some light snow to Russia’s central region, possibly a coating to 2”.
  • There won’t be a lot of precipitation through the rest of the region over the next ten days, so it’s definitely a drier push.
  • Temps look normal to slightly above, but there will be some roller coaster to upcoming temps.
  • Up and down temps can be hard on crops but overall condition still looks 80% good to excellent.

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