Regional Weather Outlook 1-23-17

Corn Belt weather:

  • The Corn Belt is sandwiched between strong low pressure moving east and another strong low forming out west.
  • One low is moving across the mid-Atlantic states and up the east coast, dragging moisture through the eastern Belt, with OH getting off and on showers today.
  • Another strong low is coming together in NE through tomorrow, putting down snow in NE, SD, IA, and southern MN tomorrow night-Wednesday, with totals of 2-6” in parts of northern IA and southern MN through southern WI, but the action dissipates quickly.
  • The low moves into MI by Wednesday and switches to light rain, with very little action south of I-80 in IL, IN, and OH.
  • Coverage will be 40-50% of the Corn Belt.
  • After that, high pressure works into the Corn Belt as strong north winds work in on the backside of the circulation on Thursday.
  • The north winds will take temps back down, but it’s only closer to normal, with the winds likely continuing Friday-Saturday.
  • Their may be some lake effect snow over the Great Lakes on Sunday, but high pressure will otherwise be in control, dominating Monday-Tuesday.
  • Weak low pressure moves over the Upper Midwest on Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday, possibly triggering light snows in WI, MN, and MI, but there isn’t a lot of moisture to work with, and not much falling south of I-80 again.
  • Strong high pressure is back in control Wednesday-Friday, so overall, the pattern looks fairly dry after the one system moves out this week.
  • The 11-16 day forecast still finds models sharply disagreeing, with the GFS model actually disagreeing with itself too.
  • Both models are agreeing that there won’t be a lot of big-time weather events until early February, so there won’t be much in the way of precipitation as the month turns.

 

Deep South weather:

  • A strong low pressure circulation is working out of the region and up the east coast, with the remnants of some very heavy weekend rains working through NC and SC, and they should end this afternoon.
  • The pattern will become more tranquil, with sunshine breaking out in the western part of the region.
  • Systems will continue to pass by to the north over the rest of the week, so there should be nothing but sunshine Tuesday-Thursday.
  • The only exception will be a minor trough that works through the eastern half of the region Wednesday night-early Thursday, which could be worth a few scattered showers, likely totaling .2” or less and coverage will be 30-40% maximum.
  • High pressure is dominant from Friday-Monday, and there won’t be any inclement weather next week, so it may mean roughly 8 days or more of dry weather in the South; into early February, I see nothing working its way across the western part of the country, which may mean a long-term drying pattern across the region.
  • Temps in the Deep South should mostly be near normal; there may be a night or two of 32-degree temps in the northern half of the Deep South, but it shouldn’t be much to worry about.

 

Great Plains weather:

  • The great plains will deal with a strong low pressure area coming out of the central Rockies later today-tonight, with that low moving over northeast CO, ending up in southern NE and northern KS by tomorrow.
  • Most of the precipitation will fall on the top and backside of the circulation, so light snows will develop in NE, southern SD, the NE panhandle, southeast WY, and northeast CO, from overnight tonight-Wednesday.
  • The best snow accumulation will be in NE and southern SD, with a maximum of 3-6” possible, with a coating-2” possible in northeast CO; southeast WY could see 1-2” there; flurries in northwest KS; there won’t be much precipitation further south than that.
  • This action works northeast and exits in the plains by Wednesday afternoon, with lingering wraparound snows in NE and SD through Wednesday.
  • The plains will transition into a fairly dry period going forward from there as high pressure moves in Thursday and keeps control through Sunday.
  • There will be a weak upper level disturbance trying to move over the northern plains Monday afternoon-Tuesday, bringing light snows to ND and SD, but the rest of the plains are dry, sunny, and pleasant from midweek this week-all of next week.
  • Strong gusty winds might be the only weather story in the plains next week as they switch to the north, bringing in cooler temps getting back closer to normal, but it won’t be a major below-normal push.
  • The thing that’ll get cold is the wind chill over the middle section of the country.
  • No major weather systems will be developing at the end of the ten-day period out west, which means the dry period should continue at the end of next week and into the following week.

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