South America weather:

• Scattered moisture is falling over about 60% of Brazil of growing areas today-Wednesday, with the heaviest precipitation over the western quarter of growing areas, including western Matto Grosso through western Matto Grosso do Sul.
• 2-3 day rain totals there could be .5-2.5” combined, which means moisture will likely interfered with harvest in those areas.
• Central and eastern growing areas are looking drier going into midweek, but things change later this week with decent action firing up Thursday and Friday afternoons in Goias through western Minas Gerais.
• Totals will be .25-1” of moisture while the moisture slowly shuts off in western growing areas.
• The moisture will push farther north from Friday-Sunday, sitting just north of Matto Grosso and arcing around through Minas Gerais and into Bahia, so northeast Brazil areas may get .5-1.5” of rain off and on from Friday-Monday combined.
• The moisture starts off next week back out west Monday-Tuesday, with totals of .5-2” in Matto Grosso, MGDS, and into Sao Paulo and Parana.
• That moisture will move north and east through the rest of next week, and the pattern will give moisture to most of Brazil, with coverage at 75-80% and ten day totals of 2-3” likely.
• The rains will be spread out, so harvest should be able to progress around the moisture and planting should have decent moisture to work with going forward.
• Temps will be warmer in eastern growing areas, including Minas Gerais, eastern Goias, and up into western Bahia, but the warmer temps are expanding west a bit.
• By the middle of this week, above normal overnight lows are possible all the way through Matto Grosso, but they won’t combine with above normal daytime highs, which remain at normal to slightly above normal.
• This weekend through early next week, temps go normal to slightly above in central Brazil, including Matto Grosso into MGDS; meanwhile, northeast areas that have been the driest recently before finally pickiing up more rain, will see temps turn cooler, normal to below normal for the first half of next week in Bahia, Minas Gerais, and northeast Goias.
• Argentina is seeing a mostly dry start to the week as high pressure is still somewhat in control while strong winds are starting to kick up over the country.
• The next round of rain moves in over Buenos Aires province tomorrow night-Wednesday, with totals of .25-.75” before moving northward.
• The rest of Argentina growing areas likely see those same totals as the heavier precipitation push farther east into Uruguay and southern Brazil, including Rio Grande do Sul.
• Dry weather will finish the week, late Thursday-early Friday, as a front tries to work into western Argentina Friday-Saturday but it doesn’t look like it holds together, and if it doesn’t, showers will likely re-start across the old frontal boundary over the weekend.
• Rain totals over the weekend look like .5-1.25” with 80% coverage across the country.
• One model is trying to show a strong circulation developing over BA on Sunday afternoon-Monday, which could bump rain totals in BA closer to 2” of rain.
• Things clear out early next week, Monday-Wednesday, with nice dry down weather.
• Strong storms stay south of key growing areas on Wednesday.
• Overall, temps look near normal, with below normal a possibilty over a few days because of strong circulations this weekend into early next week. Temps could be a little above normal early this week with some of the drier weather.

Ukraine/Black Sea/Russia weather:

• Strong high pressure sits over Russia this morning in the northern region and it’s a cold high pressure dome, but the cold temps are fairly normal for this time of year.
• The strong high will hold through Wednesday as it parks over northeast Ukraine and stretches through central Russia.
• We’re also seeing strong gusty winds and I think that’s a bigger story as they don’t likely ease up until Thursday.
• Temps gradually ease from Thursday-Saturday, gradually getting above the freezing mark, which means any precipitation coming across eastern Ukraine as well as central/northern Russia, could actually be a mix of rain/snow.
• Totals will be .25-.5” liquid equivalent and coverage will be no more than 30% combined over eastern Ukraine and central/southern Russia.
• Another front coming together behind that might bring some precipitation from Sunday-early Monday, totaling a few hundredths at best.
• Another cold air high tries to nose back in from central Russia after that, from Monday-Wednesday, with another cold air push.
• If it does rain over the forecast, decreasing the snowpack again, some concerns about winterkill will get talked about starting late this week-into the weekend.
• At this point, I don’t believe it, but if these things stack up too much more, there could be a story over the next 7-10 days.

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