Region Specific Weather 1-30-17

Corn Belt weather:

  • Strong high pressure is working through the northwestern Corn Belt today from northeast IA into the Upper Midwest.
  • It’ll move over the Great Lakes and be kicked out by a strong low coming down out of the Canadian prairies tonight-tomorrow morning, bringing snow to MN, WI, and MI.
  • Moisture totals will be a few hundredths to .25” liquid equivalent, with the heaviest precipitation areas near the Great Lakes region, with 30% coverage as it won’t move south of I-80.
  • The circulation may hold through Wednesday, leaving lingering snows outside of the Great Lakes region.
  • Strong Canadian high pressure is back over the region on Thursday, especially in the eastern Corn Belt, moving over the region Friday-Sunday, taking temps to normal to slightly below.
  • Strong circulation on the backside will bring in warmer temps behind the high from Saturday night-Sunday in the western Corn Belt, triggering some precipitation in IA, MN, WI, and western IL.
  • While precipitation totals aren’t huge at any given time, over the next 10 days, 30-40% of the Corn Belt will see .25” of liquid, which means precipitation is well below normal over that stretch.
  • Another strong Canadian high moves across the Corn Belt early next week, Monday-Tuesday, worth a little bit of precipitation, and most of the systems moving in over the next two weeks want to stay mostly south.
  • The extended forecast is still showing two fronts coming through, and I’m still in the area of colder than normal and snowier than normal for February.
  • Over the next 10-14 days, the Corn Belt doesn’t look exceptionally active.

 

Deep South weather:

  • High pressure will start the week over the region today and holds through Thursday.
  • As it moves off the southeast coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, things begin to change.
  • Light showers develop on Thursday afternoon across LA, MS, and southern AR, but nothing very organized that’ll be worth more than .25” of rain and coverage of 30-40%.
  • This moisture moves through AL, GA, and SC by Friday and still isn’t well-organized but it does sow some seeds for the future.
  • High pressure holds through the weekend, and then showers and thunderstorms develop on the backside of the high late Sunday afternoon and wants to hug the coast, including southern LA, southern MS, southern AL, and the FL panhandle.
  • Moisture totals will be .25-.75” with coverage at 20% of the region or less.
  • Strong thunderstorms get going in east TX Monday night-Tuesday, moving into LA, AR, and MS, with strong to severe weather possible as things get active from Tuesday morning-Thursday in most of the region.
  • The action stays south of the Mason-Dixon line, with the rest of the Deep South picking up .25-1.25” of rain with 60-70% coverage.
  • It’s followed by a dry stretch as the entire western part of the country is under the influence of high pressure.
  • February 8-9, we may see a system in the Big Bend area of TX gets going and if it can draw moisture off the Gulf, there will be some moisture in the extended forecast, but right now, my thinking is things stay dry as it may not be able to draw in moisture.
  • Temps in the Deep South mostly near normal over the next 10-14 days.

 

Great Plains weather:

  • High pressure is in control over the plains through most of this week, but there is an upper level disturbance moving over the northern plains this afternoon-tonight, bringing light snow over eastern ND and into northern MN.
  • South winds move over the northern plains today before turning north and blowing strong.
  • It’s cold high pressure so temps will be in the single digits to below zero later this week, going below normal for the first time in about 3 weeks, and the freezing or below freezing temps stretch down into southern KS by the end of this week.
  • It’ll be cold in the plains, especially in the north, but it won’t be like the cold blast we saw back in December.
  • A minor upper level disturbance will move over SD and northeast NE next Saturday afternoon, triggering mostly flurries in those areas before it turns into a bigger deal in the Corn Belt.
  • Then, it’s back to strong high pressure to finish the weekend and go into the following week.
  • Next week will see some strong rains in east TX, totaling 1-2.5” but it doesn’t move north at all.
  • A system then tries to push in from the northern Rockies next Tuesday night-Wednesday, February 7-8, with snows starting in WY, western NE, and northern CO, but there will be some warm air mixing in there, so will it be rain or snow.
  • This means moisture in the central plains next week but that is it, so overall, precipitation looks to be below normal in the plains, with temps mostly normal but dropping below for a few days in this forecast.

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