Much colder air comes into the region today, behind a front that finally worked through the state late yesterday. This should usher in a period of below normal temps that hold through the end of the week. We also will see drier weather attempt to move in with the cold, but that will be stymied just a bit over the far northern part of the state. In those areas, we expect lake effect snows to set up. With the current wind set up, this will likely be limited to typical areas in north central and northeast Indiana, mostly St. Joe, Elkhart, Lagrange and Steuben counties, with some lighter, more variable snows the next tier of counties south. The rest of the state should see some breaks in clouds through the day, and some sun to go along with the cold air today.

Tomorrow we have minor light snows meandering through the state as strong high pressure sweeps across from west to east. Moisture available is only a few hundredths to at most .15”, but air is cold enough to see light snow and flurries over about 80% of the state. Accumulations will be minor, but we still will want to be on the lookout for slick roads in spots, as the snow is going to be fairly constant through the day. IT should not promote major school or business delays in most areas, unless the little wave decides to amplify out of the blue.

Mostly dry Friday through the weekend and into Monday of next week. We may see some lake effect snows and clouds pop up on a couple of occasions this weekend in far northern Indiana and more so in Michigan, but it is not a big enough threat to really devote lots of resources to this morning. The rest of the state should see good sunshine all the way through. Temps will try to moderate some, but will not see large scale expansion just yet. However, strong southwest winds will start to develop Monday midday and afternoon up the backside of a strong high pressure dome. This will begin to push temps higher late Monday afternoon and we will continue to see that moderating push into Tuesday, as our next batch of moisture moves in.
Light rains move in next Tuesday afternoon and will continue off and on through Wednesday into Thursday. Currently, models are keeping the core of low pressure farther south, setting up a corridor of most significant moisture over the southern half of the state for the 2-3 day period. As it stands right now, we could see rains combine to bring half to 1.25” in areas along and south of I-70 from late Tuesday through Thursday. Rains farther north will be up to half an inch through Wednesday. Coverage north of I-70 looks to be 50%, while coverage south of I-70 will be 100%. Here is where things get interesting: with this corridor of heaviest moisture staying south along with the low pressure track, that allows cold air to push in over the northern parts of the state Wednesday night into Thursday while moisture is still in play with the system. That will change rains over to snow in northern Indiana with the potential for some accumulations. This would be followed by the potential for some lake snows later Thursday through Friday. Now…there is plenty of time before the system’s arrival to change track. A move farther north would put more rain over more of the state and decrease the chance of snow. A move south may bring a chance of snow farther south, but amounts likely would be lower. This is a big wild card, and has plenty of different scenarios it could breed, so we will continue to watch this very closely. For what it’s worth, the GFS model is its typical warmer, wetter self, while the European is colder and favors a southern track. This will be fun. In any case, this map shows at least one thought about precipitation coverage just after the noon hour next Wednesday, a week from today.

In the extended period, behind the system the middle of next week, we see drier air come in for a few days. Our next significant front likely does not develop until closer to the 16^th and 17^th. It will be similar to most of the strong fronts so far this winter…sweeping through most of the state from west to east. This time, the low is looking to dig farther south over the plains, which would set us up for better snow potential out of a possibly strong frontal passage. If the European is right on the system next week, that would mean more cold air already in place, for that extended period system to move right into. The key takeaway from this outlook this morning is that we do not see any decrease in activity over the coming 2 weeks heading right through mid-month.

 

South America weather:

• Dryness is becoming more of a concern in northeast Brazil as places like Bahia, northern Minas Gerais, and northeast Goias have missed out on recent moisture.
• Thunderstorms do form over Goias tomorrow afternoon, but they don’t seem to move north and east.
• Most of the action in Brazil this week will be pop up, heat based thunderstorms, and we don’t see any fronts moving across the country for the rest of this week.
• This week, we’ll see below normal rainfall in Brazil’s key growing areas, likely .25-1.25” combined now-Sunday, with those drier areas still not getting rain this week as well.
• Better moisture develops in south/southeast Brazil next week, from southeast Matto Gross over to Goias through southwest Minas Gerais and areas to the south of that line.
• Rain totals next week will be 1-2” combined and it’ll park for multiple days in those areas.
• That leaves the balance of Matto Grosso, northern Goias, Minas Gerais, and Bahia dry again.
• Temps in those drier areas look to be normal to above, with the rest of Brazil trending normal to slightly above.
• Northern Minas Gerais is likely the area that’ll develop heat stress with the warmest temps in the forecast.
• Harvest is underway in Matto Grosso and it’ll be aided by dryness in the short term.
• Temps cool off next week and go back below normal in MGDS, through Parana, Sao Paulo, and southwest Minas Gerais, which means any heat stress isn’t going to be a long term challenge.

• The Argentina setup looks more like a north versus south deal.
• Northern Argentina should see good mositure over the next 10-14 days, but central and southern areas will see lower totals.
• Tomrrow-Thursday, they’ll see a big cluster of thunderstorms over the northern half of Argentina growing areas that’ll put down 1-3” of rain.
• Today-tomorrow, there will be scattered showers ahead of it in BA, Cordoba, and La Pampa, with coverage at 30% of the southern half of growing areas.
• High pressure will dominate Saturday-Sunday, but a small cluster of thunderstorms will fire up in BA and Cordoba on Saturday night.
• Big showers will fall in the northern half to 2/3 of Argentina on Tuesday-Wednesday, with another 1-2” of rain and nothing in the southern 1/3 of growing areas.
• The best action in the south will be Thursday night-Friday, where they could see .5-1” of rain in all southern areas that had been missed up to that point.
• All growing areas in Argentina get at least 1.5” of rain, with central/northern areas getting 2-2.5” over the next 10 days.
• Temps in Argentina will be normal to slightly above as things get a little warmer in the north, with central and southern areas still cooler than normal during the day but warmer than normal at night.

 

Ukraine/Black Sea region weather:

• Reports are that 80% of the winter crops in that area look very good and there’s nothing in the outlook that’ll change our thought process on that.
• Moisture will come through in a timely manner as fronts sweep through, with one coming across the Black Sea and over southern Ukraine from Thursday-Friday of this week.
• Another system will move through at the end of this weekend/early next week.
• Timely moisture and good snowcover for wheat areas in the region.
• Temps are moving to normal/slightly below normal after trending above in recent days.
• Brutal cold weather may move into Ukraine and parts of Russia by the end of the weekend and early next week, but there’s plenty of snow cover on top of the winter wheat crop.

Corn Belt weather:

• A storm complex centered in the eastern US is dragging moisture with it through the eastern Corn Belt today, including IN and OH, plus parts of eastern MI.
• A second wave of moisture comes through later today/this evening, just ahead of another blast of arctic air.
• Most of the second wave will be liquid moisture in IN, lower MI, OH, and down into KY.
• Snowfall is moving through MN and WI this morning before lifting northeast into parts of Ontario.
• Very strong north winds will wrap around the backside of the low tonight-Wednesday, setting up lake effect snow over MI, northern WI, IN, and OH.
• These lake effect zones could see significant accumulation, but the rest of the Corn Belt won’t see that kind of precipitation.
• High pressure then slides across the central Corn Belt, but it’s a “dirty high,” in that it will have some light snowfall with it that’ll work its way through 60% of the Corn Belt, totaling a coating to 2” possible.
• Most of that will fall in IL, IN, and OH, plus they’ll see some in MO and southern IA on Thursday morning.
• That snow moves east quickly and high pressure dominates through the rest of the week/weekend, Friday-Sunday.
• The arctic air and 0 degree temp line sneaks down to I-80.
• The backside of the high this weekend will see south windflow that will moderate temps Monday-Tuesday, but that’ll end fairly quickly as another strong storm complex works through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday.
• This brings snow to MN and WI, but they’ll just see winds further to the south.
• Wednesday night-Thursday will see a better precipitation chance right along the I-70 corridor, including MO, IL, and IN, with rain totals of .25-.75” and 75-80% coverage in those areas.
• The area could be in line for snow in the extended forecast in the western Corn Belt and rain in the east, January 14-15, if it can hold together as it moves closer.

 

Deep South weather:

• Things calm down a bit in the region after rains falling today move out by this evening.
• Thunderstorms start the day in NC, SC, eastern TN, and GA, with additional moisture at .25-.5” only.
• Dry tomorrow-Friday as snows in the OH River valley don’t appear to drop south at the end of the week.
• Temps push down close to freezing in MS and AL by the end of the week.
• Another storm complex moves through the coastal areas Friday night-Saturday, with coverage at 60-70% and totals of .25-.75” likely.
• The next system to move through the Deep South doesn’t come together until later next week as a system in the OH River valley doesn’t sag south, but there will be a cold front developing out of it and sweep through western and northern parts of the region Thursday afternoon.
• Rain totals will be .25” to a third, with 40-50% coverage in the region, with coastal areas likely more impacted by high pressure over the Gulf.
• The extended forecast isn’t showing anything that promises large amounts of rain later in the window, but there will be moisture just off the coast that will throw waves of moisture inland occasionally.

 

Great Plains weather:

• The plains look relatively quiet over the next 7-10 days after dealing with some lingering snowfall in the northern plains and Upper Midwest today and winds will subside by sunset tonight.
• The rest of the plains will see minor snows this week, with the best chance to come late Wednesday-Thursday as moisture kicks out of the central Rockies into the central plains.
• Snow totals may be 4” in eastern CO, but NE, KS, OK, and TX panhandle only see 1-2” of snow and no significant winds with it.
• High pressure sits over the plains from Saturday-Tuesday before snow comes back to the northern plains on Tuesday afternoon, including eastern ND and northern MN.
• Strong high pressure moves in later next week and keeps all areas basically dry, but a light coating is possible in NE and ND Wednesday night-Thursday, but that’s it.
• A system coming together out west on January 12-13 means the plains could be in line for another strong winter storm on January 14-15.
• Brutal cold temps will be the story this week in the northern plains through the first half of this week and freezing or below temps all the way down into TX.
• The cold does let up later this week as south winds kick up behind the high pressure dome, with next week looking seasonal as there aren’t strong systems moving through that can draw down the colder air.

Rains moved in yesterday and we continue to see some lingering action this morning over eastern and southern parts of the state. However, we should see a little bit of a lull in the action through midday and afternoon working in from west to east, before another wave of action slides through late this afternoon and tonight. This second push of moisture will still likely be rain, although we are seeing much colder air work in as well from the north and west. All told, we think we can pick up another .1” to .5” of rain today, and we have to watch tonight for any of that rain to try and switch over to snow before ending. We do not think it will lead to any serious accumulation.

We should be mostly dry tomorrow (Wednesday) and then with strong north winds coming down the fetch of the great lakes, we can see some lake enhancement of our next system, a clipper like system that rips through on Thursday. Moisture does not look overly impressive, mostly a tenth to .15” or less, but it will be cold enough to be all snow, so we look for minor accumulations over about 80% of the state. Up north near the lakes, we can see slightly higher amounts with the lake effect. Still, but Friday morning everything is long gone.

High pressure is in for Saturday and Sunday, leading to some sunshine and overall pleasant weather, at least for January. Temps will be near normal. Then we see a return to southwest flow for Monday, and as our next little trough moves through, we can see some light snow flying over about 60% of the state. Little to no accumulation. This will just be the precursor to our next front that moves through later Tuesday into Wednesday. Action starts as some snows overnight Tuesday night. These can bring accumulations of a coating to a few inches mostly over the northern half to third of the state. Then we see rains from .25”-.6” for Wednesday morning and Wednesday afternoon with coverage at 80%.  Cold air returns Wednesday night in the wake of the front. Dry then for the balance of the 10 day period through next Thursday.

In the extended window, we see another significant front trying to work through around the 14^th into the 15^th. This could have liquid equivalent precipitation of .25”-.75” with coverage at 100% of the state. However, models are largely divergent on the air mass that comes in with the system. The European is much colder, meaning we would be looking at bigger snow potential, while the GFS still likes the warm surge first, with cold air coming after rains are done. We think the colder solution is likely…and like a below normal month of January for temps. But, time will tell. Suffice to say, we still look for a normally active pattern through the first half to eh month, with systems every few days. There is nothing really too far out of the ordinary here.