Regional Weather Outlook 2-1-17

Corn Belt weather:

  • High pressure in control will keep things dry for a few days, through most of Saturday.
  • There are still 2 systems to pay attention to over the next 10 days; the first is a southern Corn Belt event coming through Saturday night-Sunday, with light snow stretching from the arrowhead of MN through IA and northern MO on Saturday.
  • It’s not very organized as there’s no frontal boundary, just activity up the backside of the high as it moves away.
  • This turns into light rain as it moves through southern MO, KY, and TN, and light snowfall in IL and IN, with moisture totals of .25” or less and snowfall liquid equivalent will be .1” or less.
  • Another high pressure dome will dry things out later on Sunday-early Tuesday.
  • A strong low pressure circulation comes out of the central/southern plains and lifting across the Corn Belt Tuesday-early Thursday, but the forecast now shows the activity splitting.
  • The activity has a southern feature which moves across the area from I-70 southward and a northern feature from I-80 northward.
  • This is what one model is showing but I actually think this could come together into one system without the split, but this will play havoc with where the precipitation really wants to fall.
  • Totals will still be .5-2” across a good chunk of the Corn Belt with massive snow in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes area, but it looks like a dry slot will come across IA, MO, IL, and parts of IN.
  • We’ll see how this changes going forward, but for now, this isn’t my official forecast yet as I don’t really like the split solution the model is showing currently.
  • A strong system will hit the west coast of the country around February 7-8, but we’ll see if it wants to hold together as it moves east but the models say probably not.
  • Strong arctic high pressure will take temps back down below normal over the second half of next week.

 

Deep South weather:

  • High pressure is in control to finish out this week across the region and go into the weekend.
  • A little light shower action may fall overnight tomorrow night-Friday in AL and MS over the top edge of a high pressure dome, but there won’t be much in the way of totals.
  • We’ll wait till early next week for the next solid round of precipitation as showers and thunderstorms develop over AR, western TN, and northern MS Monday night-Tuesday; later on Tuesday-Wednesday, the moisture sweeps across the rest of the region.
  • Overall totals will be 75% coverage with .5-1.5” likely and strong thunderstorms are a possiblity.
  • As that system moves away, the rest of next week will be relatively dry starting on Thursday at midday.
  • Temps will be a little cool in the region as the Deep South sees the freezing line sags into northern MS, AL, and north GA from Thursday night-Friday, but it won’t go much farther south than that.
  • The extended forecast shows another frontal boundary working in through the middle of the 11-16-day forecast window but it shouldn’t be anything problematic at this point.

 

Great Plains weather:

  • High pressure is in control for the most part, although there is a weak cool front sagging southward today across ND, SD, and northern NE, with light snow trying to develop in SD, the NE panhandle, and eastern WY late this afternoon-tomorrow.
  • Light snow is in the forecast all the way down into northeast CO and northwest KSl, but the liquid equivalent will be a .03-.1” which means snowfall of a coating to 1”; blowing snow is possible in the NE panhandle and northeast CO.
  • The action ends tomorrow afternoon and the rest of the week will be dry and that holds into the weekend.
  • Temps are well below normal in the northern plains and normal to below in the central and southern plains.
  • The next round of moisture gets going late in the weekend-early next week, with scattered light rain showers developing on the backside of a strong suface high in eastern OK, southeast KS, and northeast TX, with totals of .1-.2” or less.
  • That action is a precursor to low pressure moving into the central plains Monday night-Tuesday; it’s got moisture with it but models disagree on how it uses that moisture.
  • Currently, it looks like the best precipitation outbreak is up north as ND and SD are in line to pick up some significant snowfall, but the question mark is farther south; NE, KS, OK, and eastern CO will see moisture as rain to start followed by snow to finlsh, but the question is where the moisture gets drawn from so it’s hard to predict how much they’re looking at getting.
  • Right now I think they’re looking at .25-.75” of liquid and .25” of moisture coming in the colder air behind, but there could also be a significant dry slot in the low pressure circulation if it remains as strong as what it could be.
  • Coverage it a little up in the air, but right now the northern plains will see 90% coverage with moderate to heavy snows and gusty winds, and from I-90 southward, coverage is no better than 50% with some rain going over to snow; it all comes down to the track of this low and whether or not it stays as one circulation rather than splitting into two like some models are forecasting.
  • That system is followed by a strong arctic high coming down across ND and SD for next Thursday-Friday, with below zero temps down into central NE and the freezing line down into central TX.

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