Regional Weather Outlook 2-2-17

Corn Belt weather:

  • Strong high pressure diving south out of Canada to finish out the week and go through most of the weekend, working through western Corn Belt areas today-tomorrow, and then central-eastern locations tomorrow-Saturday.
  • Strong winds kick up on the backside of the high Sunday and we were concerned about moisture falling Saturday night-Sunday, but that may be going away as the air mass is very dry with no real moisture source.
  • A weak high pressure dome moves in Sunday afternoon-Monday before the big storm complex we’ve been telling you about gets going.
  • It moves out of the central plains late Monday afternoon with moisture ahead of it and strong south winds.
  • Rain and thunderstorms move through IL, MO, IN, KY, and OH thanks to a low near St. Louis on Sunday night.
  • Another low comes out of NE and works into the Upper Midwest, so there is a gap between the two but it’s not nearly as wide on the latest model runs, but it does give significant snow and gusty winds to the Upper Midwest, especially in MN.
  • The system moves east on Tuesday and the lows work to combine; rain should continue from I-80 southward through midday Tuesday and snow to the north of I-80, but with cold air rushing in, rain to the south will end as snow Tuesday night-Wednesday, with accumulations in parts of IL, IN, and OH.
  • Winds could potentially reach 20-50 MPH, especially on the backside of the system, may cause some lake enhancement to the snow in the eastern Corn Belt.
  • Strong high pressure comes in behind the system as it lifts northeast, so things look dry Wednesday afternoon-Friday, and strong south winds kick up behind the high going into next weekend, Feb 11-12, which may bring light snow to MI, WI, and up into Ontario.
  • Low pressure coming together in CO at the end of the 10-day period may be able to tap into moisture from the Gulf coast and become a big weather producer for the Corn Belt around Feb 14-15.
  • Temps over the next 10 days are normal to below as there will be several cold air incursions moving through.

 

Deep South weather:

  • High pressure is slowly sinking off the Gulf coast and southeast US today, leading to topside and backside moisture popping up in AR, LA, and MS through today, totaling .25” or less and coverage will be 30%.
  • Strong high pressure takes control tomorrow and holds through the weekend-into Monday, but there may some weak precipitation on Sunday in the western part of the region, including AR, LA, and eastern TX.
  • A big system is coming into the region next week, getting going in the Corn Belt but it doesn’t have a cold front that hits the Deep South on Tuesday, but that changes Tuesday afternoon as several waves of strong to severe weather work through AR, western TN, MS, LA, and western AL, all thanks to frontal boundary development.
  • Moderate to heavy rains come with it, bringing totals of .5-1.5” on Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday, with coverage at 75-80%; areas that may get missed include most of LA, the western half of AR, and other far western areas right on the edge of the region.
  • High pressure comes in behind it and brings a cool finish to the week as freezing temps dip down into southern AL and southern MS on Friday morning, but it shouldn’t go far enough south to create citrus concerns; there could be freezing temps in southern GA and extreme northern FL on Saturday morning, but it still isn’t a major story just yet.
  • The high then moves offshore and south winds kick up again, moderating temps at the tail end of next weekend.
  • Another system may push into the Deep South around Valentine’s Day, part of the same system that likely hits the Corn Belt.
  • Temps in the Deep South will be normal to a bit below, with the coldest temps again next Friday and Saturday mornings.

 

Great Plains weather:

  • Strong high pressure is in play right now, with light snow trying to start later this afternoon along the backside of the high in western NE, southwest SD, eastern WY, and northeast CO, totaling .03-.1” maximum, but if it does fall as snow it could blow around a bit in those areas.
  • The high will hold into the weekend; up the backside of the high, strong south winds blow on Saturday-Sunday and moderate temps dramatically.
  • A low kicks out of the central plains into NE Saturday night-Sunday, but does nothing as it has no moisture with it.
  • A strong low wants to develop in southeast CO, moving into KS on Monday night-Tuesday, and its moisture falls farther east in AR, MO, and IA; a strong low moves through the northern plains with the heaviest precipitation in MN but there will also be good snowfall amounts in ND and northern SD Monday night-Tuesday.
  • The rest of the plains gets nothing as the strong storm complex hammers the eastern part of the country.
  • Things stay dry later Tuesday-Wednesday and another massive high settles into northeast KS by Thursday night-Friday, keeping the entire plains dry.
  • Another low looks to come together around Feb 12 in northeast CO, with moisture working through the higher elevations and if it can hook up with another system farther south and grab moisture off the Gulf, it could bring moisture to the central and southern plains on Feb 13.
  • Otherwise, precipitation totals look well below normal in most of the plains.

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