South America weather:
- Slightly drier weather unfolding in Brazil today-the weekend and any moisture will be primarily hit and miss, with no frontal-based action likely through Sunday.
- Moisture begins to develop in central and eastern parts of Brazil by Sunday afternoon, falling in Minas Gerais, through Goias, and into western Bahia, totaling .25-.75” and covering 75-80% of those areas; There won’t be as much moisture back into Matto Grosso.
- That begins to change next week through Tuesday-Thursday, as moisture begins to build back in, totaling .5-2” over Matto Grosso, through Goias, and areas through central and northern growing areas, with coverage at 75%.
- Standard hit and miss action will be the rule over the rest of next week, but southern Minas Gerais near the coast will see some moderate to heavy thunderstorms there, which will lead to a nice swath of moisture flowing north and east; one plume will go across the central growing region back through Matto Grosso, likely worth 1-2” rains Thursday-Saturday of next week; another plume goes straight north through northern Minas Gerais, eastern Goias, and Bahia, totaling 1-2” there on Thursday-Friday of next week.
- The eastern plume sits there going into next weekend through Sunday, so east and northeast Brazil will pick up a lot of moisture over the second half of next week; 1-2” Thursday-early Saturday before adding another 1-1.5” on Sunday-Monday.
- Out west in Matto Grosso, they’ll get timely moisture and see good harvesting opportunities.
- The dries areas in Brazil will be south in Matto Grosso do Sul through Parana and areas southward, where these areas won’t see much moisture at all over the next 7-14 days, but that should help harvest ramp up; the best moisture concentrations look to be in the some of the driest areas.
- Temps in Brazil look mostly normal.
- The pattern looks a little more active but it also has a lot more holes in coverage area.
- Things should be dry to start today but overnight tonight-tomorrow, thunderstorms fire off in northern LaPampa and southern Cordoba, with moisture totals of .25-.75” but I don’t think it’ll expand much more than that and should fall apart by midday tomorrow.
- A strong line of showers/thunderstorms will move through all corn/soybean growing areas Saturday-Sunday, with rains totaling .5-1.5” and covering 100% of all growing areas, and the heaviest rains linger a bit in Buenos Aires province at the end of the weekend.
- Strong high pressure moves in for Monday-Tuesday before the next system comes together Wednesday morning further south like La Pampa and western BA, with scattered showers and thunderstorms lifting north and east; totals will be .25-.5” and coverage will be 30%.
- Late next week, Friday-Saturday, another big system will move through with moisture totals of .5-2.5” with coverage at 90%; it’s a strong inland circulation and if it should linger into the weekend, it could put down an additional 1-3” rains in BA, Entre Rios, and southern Santa Fe.
- These are some of the areas that took very heavy rains earlier this season, so if this develops as we think it might, this could mean some bullish activity for the market as concerns will be about too much rainfall.
- A system this strong likely pulls down cooler air, so temps likely trend normal to below over the second half of next week and into the following week.
Ukraine/Russia/Black sea weather:
- Strong high pressure is parked over central Ukraine today, but as it begins to break down, light moisture works in from west to east, and should fall mostly as light rains, except for areas in north central Ukraine where it could be light snow.
- Moisture equivalencies will be .25-.4” likely, with coverage tomorrow-early Saturday at 75-80% of Ukraine growing areas.
- Temps continue to moderate to freezing or above over most of Ukraine and Russia’s southern growing region.
- Russia’s central region is a different story as a strong low moves in Saturday afternoon-Sunday, bringing .25-.75” moisture, with a lot of it falling as snow, although if temps surge behind the low, it could be a rain/snow mix.
- An active pattern will kick off next week with another low moving through Ukraine, bringing scattered light rain showers in the south and light snow up north and very strong winds.
- Coverage will be 40-50% of Ukraine and 50% coverage in central/southern Russia, with combined moisture totals of .25-.5”.
- Gusty winds hold through the rest of next week and cold air moves back in, with freezing temps dropping south into the Black Sea area, and temps drop below zero in northern Ukraine as well as central/southern Russia.
- The cold air is coming back in when there isn’t a lot of snow pack, which may lead to talk in the markets about winter kill concerns