Regional Weather Outlook 2-14-17

Corn Belt weather:

  • Cloud cover stretches over MO, IL, IN, and OH, but there isn’t a lot of moisture with it, limited to the boot heel of MO and along the OH River valley.
  • We don’t expect the moisture to work farther north, staying mostly south of the Corn Belt.
  • A cool front sliding out of Canada will impact places like northern MN and the northern Great Lakes this afternoon but basically brings just cooler air.
  • The rest of this week will be sunny and dry, with south winds taking temps back up starting tomorrow and getting well above normal Friday-Sunday, with no major weather isssues across the region.
  • This pattern holds into next week, but there is a batch of moisture coming out of the central plains on Monday and into the western Belt Monday night-Tuesday, with scattered showers stretching from the MN arrowhead through MO, and then moves eastward.
  • Models don’t agree on how the moisture holds together but right now we see it hitting the MS River and decaying a bit as it moves east of the river, meaning a few widely scattered showers for IL, IN, and OH, on Tuesday night-Wednesday and totaling .25” or less.
  • Totals in the western Corn Belt will be .25-.75” and coverage west of the MS River at 75-80%, east of the MS River it’ll be 50% at best.
  • After that, we settle in for another run of sunny and dry weather with temps above normal and really no pulldown in temps after the system moves away.
  • A big low comes together in the central Rockies/western plains Thursday night-Friday, moving into northeast CO and bringing some significant moisture totaling .5-1” with strong gusty winds on Feb 26-27 across the heart of the Corn Belt.
  • Temps cool down a bit for a couple days but most of the rest of the next 10 days will be well above normal.
  • The extended forecast is showing another frontal boundary complex moving into the Corn Belt around March 1-2.

 

Deep South weather:

  • A dry start to today but moisture will build into the western part of the region later today-this evening, starting in AR and LA around 6 p.m. with rain and thunderstorms, with some heavy rains thanks to possible strong thunderstorms.
  • The action moves east over the rest of the region through the overnight-tomorrow, leaving behind totals in AR and LA of .5-1.5” and then .25-.75” over the eastern part of the region, with overall coverage in the Deep South at 80-90%.
  • Strong high pressure moves in over the western part of the region starting tomorrow and the high sits over the region through the end of the week/weekend.
  • There may be a little moisture this weekend, Friday night-Saturday, just off the Gulf coast, but models say some will try to shift northward onto land through Saturday afternoon.
  • The FL panhandle could see a few thunderstorms, as well as central parts of MS, AL, and GA could get a few scattered showers.
  • High pressure is back in control to start next week on Monday, but late Monday night-Tuesday, a strong front moves in from the west, bringing moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms over AR, LA, and western MS.
  • The front then slowly works east, with overall coverage at 75%, and totals will be .5-1.5” in the western part of the region and .25-1” totals maximum in the eastern parts of the Deep South.
  • A strong low will develop out of the remains of this front over areas just off the FL coast late next Friday, which could leave some lingering moisture over FL, the GA coastline, and the NC/SC coastline, late next week.
  • The extended forecast shows activity Feb 26-28 with a fairly strong front coming out of the western US and could affect the Deep South with .5-1.5” rains.
  • The souther drought talked about last fall is likely over with the moisture ahead in the forecast.

 

Great Plains weather:

  • Action continues in the southern plains today with moisture over OK and TX, stopping at the KS/OK line, as rain totals will be .5-1.5” with heavy thunderstorms possible in east TX and eastern OK.
  • The rest of the plains are dry and high pressure will park over KS tonight, and nothing will happen in the plains for the rest of the week.
  • South winds will push temps up and they should be well above normal to finish the week and go into the weekend.
  • Next week’s weather looks tranquil as well, but keeping an eye out Sunday night-Monday for moisture moving across east TX and OK, with scattered showers stretching up into parts of KS.
  • Scattered showers start off in central/eastern KS on Monday but there won’t be much in the western plains.
  • Monday night/Tuesday, strong low pressure moves into ND, bringing light rain/snow to eastern ND and SD, but totals will be light with moisture equivalent at .25” or less, and coverage will be 20% of the plains or less.
  • Dry through the rest of next week from Tuesday-Thursday, and strong low pressure sets up in northeast CO next Thursday night-Friday.
  • 20-40 MPH south winds will come in with the low, setting up another potential blowtorch event in the central/southern plains next Friday.
  • There will be good mositure rotating around the top/backside as well, falling on Thursday night in the western Dakotas through MT, WY, western CO, UT, and into NM, then pushing east.
  • That moisture will finish out next week on Friday/Saturday, and could fall as both rain and snow, so a big-time system out there on day 10 of the forecast.

 

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