Significant moisture is over northeast Brazil today-tomorrow, with rains totaling .5-2” across Bahia, northern Minas Gerais, and into Goias, which have been some of the driest areas in the country.
Tomorrow afternoon-night, the moisture builds back west into eastern Matto Grosso, then spreading over the northern half of Brazil’s corn and soybean growing areas.
By the time we hit Monday, it’s centered over the top of Matto Grosso with .5-2” totals there, plus there’s a nice batch of moisture over southeast Brazil Sunday night-Tuesday totaling .5-1.5” and 100% coverage.
Drier air then moves in over the east/northeast areas first and into south/southeast Brazil next on Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday, which should allow the ground to use that moisture that falls ahead of the dry weather.
There may be some scattered leftover showers in Matto Grosso Wednesday-Thursday, but Thursday afternoon-early Saturday things should dry out, which means harvest and second crop corn planting should be able to ramp up and go all out.
Southeast Brazil will see moisture on Feb 20, totaling another .5-1.5” rains before spreading to the north and east.
Temps will be normal to slightly above with no major heat now, with temps in the 11-16-day forecast going below normal in the northeast.
Moderate to heavy rains over the northern quarter of growing areas today-tomorrow, with totals in some areas approaching 2-4” but those amounts stay north of the most productive growing areas.
The moisture will linger into tomorrow-Sunday with a strong circulation, and some areas like northern Santa Fe and Chaco will see heavy moisture Saturday night-Sunday, but it should stay out of most areas that were hit hard by heavy rains weeks ago.
Sunday night-Monday, some of the moisture moves into Entre Rios, southern Santa Fe, and northern Buenos Aires totaling .5-1.5” there, but the low never really goes away.
It wobbles into BA on Monday night-Tuesday, bringing another .5-1” there before it’s done.
Once the moisture is finally done, we should see a dry period over a good chunk of Argentina through the middle of next week before the next round of precipitation over the northern third of growing areas on Thursday afternoon.
Rain totals will be .25-1.25” of moisture with 60-70% coverage and that moisture kind of lingers through the rest of next week over northeast Argentina before moving into Uruguay and south/southeast Brazil.
Over the next ten days, the heaviest moisture looks to fall in the northern third of the country, with the southern third not seeing a lot of action outside of scattered showers in BA, with the central third of the country seeing some action but not as much as they do in the north.
Temps will depend on where the moisture is falling; for example, temps look colder than normal, especially in the northern part of the country where rain is falling the heaviest, but warm air will push up from the south next week but temps are still below normal in the northern half of the country.
Temps should try to move back above normal late next week, with the above and below normal temps battling for control again into the weekend.
Ukraine/Russia/Black sea weather:
No moisture in the short term as Ukraine is completely dry today and into the weekend, with temps normal to above through the weekend.
A cool front will slide southward on Monday, bringing light snow to northern Ukraine and into central Russia with mostly minor amounts.
This will also draw down colder Siberian air into the region.
A low over the Black Sea Monday night-Tuesday will try to throw moisture into central and southern regions in Russia.
Nothing major for the rest of next week as strong high pressure parks over central Ukraine on Thursday-Friday, bringing down another round of bitter cold air, which will then moderate by the weekend with strong south winds.
Precipitation looks below normal for most of the FSU.