Regional Weather Outlook 2-15-17

Corn Belt weather:

  • Strong high pressure has moved off to the south and east and strong south winds are moving into the Corn Belt, allowing temps to rise dramatically.
  • It’s a major warmup, with yesterday’s highs in the teens to 30’s, while today’s highs will be in the 40’s-50’s, with some 60-degree weather possible depending on location.
  • The serious warmup will hold into Saturday morning with no major weather issues moving in until tomorrow afternoon in the west and Sunday in the east.
  • Low pressure will start in ND and moves into northern MN, moving south/southeast with the front dragging through the western Corn Belt, and that’s where the moisture develops.
  • The best moisture totals hold off until Sunday/Sunday night, when the front is over southern IL, IN, and OH, but still totals only .03-.2” of moisture in IN and OH.
  • The rest of next week in the Corn Belt looks calm and tranquil with no major weather issues.
  • The only real activity might be a clipper system that moves from northern MN, through WI, and into MI next Wednesday, but it doesn’t have a direct impact on the Corn Belt.
  • The next big weather system that directly impacts the Corn Belt may hold off until Feb 20-21, with moisture coming together in southern MN and western IA and bringing good moisture totals on the 22-23 as temps will be above normal to start and potentially pull down behind it.
  • Temps are the main story, especially in the short term, but still above normal through next week.

 

Deep South weather:

  • High pressure is moving away today-tomorrow, and keeps most of the region dry yet, with the potential for widely scattered showers in the western and northern parts of the region Saturday night-Sunday, but only totaling .03-.1” maximum and 30% coverage across LA, AR, MS, western TN, and KY.
  • High pressure is back Monday-Tuesday, but at the same time there is a serious collection of moisture developing in TX and OK, and will move east into the region Tuesday night-Wednesday.
  • Strong low pressure circulation moves across southern LA and over the southern half of the Deep South Wednesday-early Thursday, picking up moisture off the Gulf.
  • Rainfall will total .25-1.5” with the heaviest rains in MS, LA, and AR, with the lower end of the range from AL eastward.
  • That low moves up the east coast, bringing moisture to NC, SC, and VA, before it turns into a massive snowmaker in parts of New England.
  • Cold air will dive south after the system moves out, reaching down to Atlanta, Columbia, and close to Montgomery, AL.
  • The pattern is mostly dry at the end of next week.
  • The next round of precipitation to watch for is on Feb 21-22 as moisture comes together in east TX.
  • Temps are above normal in the short term, but next week will be a roller coaster, going normal to slightly below as that moisture moves through, and then the cold air incursion as it moves away, followed by strong south winds that bring temps right back up again.

 

Great Plains weather:

  • Gusty south winds are shooting temps well above normal today, with 80s possible in KS, OK, and the TX panhandle, with temps well above normal all the way into ND and SD, where they’ll see highs near 45 degrees in ND.
  • A frontal boundary will be trying to move through over the weekend but it doesn’t do a whole lot except bring temps back closer to normal by Sunday.
  • The moisture they may see in CO, NM, TX, OK panhandle, southwest KS, will be very minor on Sunday, totaling .03-.15” maximum with 30% coverage in the plains.
  • A strong Canadian high pressure dome pushing into the northern and central plains on Sunday night-Monday, taking temps back down, but then temps rebound quickly, as temps are back near normal for the rest of the week.
  • From the KS/OK border northward, we see no precipitation all week, with sunny and dry weather.
  • There will be a significant batch of rain coming together in NM, TX, and OK, on Monday-Tuesday, bringing .5-1.5” totals to the southern plains before moving into the Deep South.
  • TX and OK begin to dry out Wednesday-Friday of next week after the moisture moves away.
  • The next big weather system develops out west around Feb 20-21, with moisture coming together around a low in CO; time will tell, but the third week of Feb could get more active.

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