Sunny, warm weather is back today with temps rivaling what we saw this past weekend, even exceeding that in some areas. But, our next system begins its move into the state tomorrow afternoon and evening, increasing clouds as it noses in. Moisture begins tomorrow night as a warm front lifts across the state. Moisture totals do not look overly impressive, with a few hundredths up to a quarter of an inch possible. The rains are mostly north of the IN/MI line by shortly after sunrise Friday morning. Southwest winds pick up through Friday ahead of the system’s cold front that comes in late Friday afternoon. This will bring better rains in for Friday evening and overnight, with rain totals from a few hundredths up to half an inch. All told, the combined rains from Thursday night through Friday midnight will be from .1”-.5” over about 80% of the state.
Much colder air is in for the start of the weekend. Strong winds come down the fetch of Lake Michigan and will trigger clouds over at least the northern half of the state. WE have concern about lake effect snow with perhaps some accumulations over the norther third to quarter of the state, particularly in the usual lake effect locations in north central and NW Indiana. Snow totals don’t look to be overly dramatic, but we will see those potential accumulations after over a week of temps that are more April and May-like…so it will grab a lot of people’s attention.
Next week we continue to see a strong system moving through for Tuesday the 28th through Wednesday March 1. This system has .25”-1.25” rain potential with coverage at 100% of the state. There is still some concern about some strong thunderstorms with the system and some heavy rains, especially Wednesday. Ahead of that system, we can see some scattered showers Monday afternoon over southern Indiana that may lead to a few hundredths to a tenth over about 30% of the region.
Beyond that, our next system in the extended period is on track for arrival around the 6th into the 7th of March, with rain potential up to half an inch.