Regional Weather Outlook 2-22-17

Corn Belt weather:

  • Today looks to see record high temps in the Corn Belt; for example, Chicago could be in the 70s today, which not only would be an all time record, it would be an overall record for a winter season day.
  • The next weather system kicks out of the central Rockies tomorrow; by the afternoon, that low pushes across KS and the leading edge will push precipitation across IA, northern IL, southern WI, northern IN, and lower MI.
  • The low then continues to move east/northeast, taking moisture with it, with heavy snow across NE, into west/northern IA, extreme southern MN, and southern WI; rain will fall south of that line.
  • Liquid equivalent precipitation totals will be .25-1.25”, with the heaviest precipitation across parts of IA, southern WI, and northern IL; they’ll see lighter totals than that in the eastern Corn Belt states, including IN, MI, and OH from .25-.75”.
  • There won’t be much precipitation south of I-70 at all before a cold front attached to the low sweeps through, giving those southern spots light precipitation totaling .25” or less.
  • High pressure will move in behind this system and hold over the weekend, with temps at or just below freezing; corn that was planted in IL will not enjoy that.
  • Temps won’t be way below normal or stay there for any stretch of time, we’re just getting back to near normal because it is still February.
  • Scattered light precipitation Sunday night-Monday tries to lift into IL and IN totaling .03-.25” as an offshoot of a low in AR.
  • Over the rest of next week, a strong low pressure center works into the Corn Belt Tuesday-Wednesday, bringing moderate to heavy rains with thunderstorms into IN, OH, and IL, and massive snows into the Upper Midwest, including the Great Lakes region, WI, and MN.
  • Liquid equivalent will be .25-1.25” and snowfall could total 3-8”up in the Great Lakes.
  • The action should be done later on Wednesday, with some rain and thunderstorms left in OH.
  • Thursday and Friday look dry with high pressure in control and temps close to normal for this time of year; if we get south wind flow behind the high temps should moderate a bit.
  • We’re not looking at a massive cold air push but the springtime temps we’ve seen over the last 10 days are likely done.
  • The extended forecast shows another frontal boundary complex moving into the Corn Belt March 6-7.

 

Deep South weather:

  • Thunderstorms continue to circulate just offshore of the Gulf of Mexico and will push into the FL peninsula today, with thunderstorms and some potentially strong to severe weather there.
  • There could be offshoot showers moving up into GA and the Carolinas, with coverage only at 30% and totals of .25” or less.
  • Over the rest of the week, the strong system up north really doesn’t have much of an impact on the south.
  • Friday afternoon/night there could be some scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through KY and TN with 40% coverage in those states, but the rest of the Deep South will see nothing.
  • The weekend looks dry with strong high pressure in play.
  • Next week starts with showers and thunderstorms on Monday moving over AR into western TN and northern MS, with totals of .25-1” and 70% coverage; as the mositure moves east into Tuesday it dissipates to .03-.25” over the remaining 60% of the Deep South.
  • A strong frontal complex Wednesday-Thursday will bring a line of showers and thunderstorms with severe weather a possibility, with moisture totaling .5-1.5” with 80% coverage in the Deep South, but the higher end of the totals will be in the northern part of the region.
  • High pressure moves back in Thursday afternoon, keeping the area dry through the weekend.
  • Moisture may try to move up the backside of the high on March 5 from TX through AR and LA.

 

Great Plains weather:

  • Great plains gets active over the next 24 hours as low pressure moves out of CO into western/central KS through tomorrow afternoon/evening as moisture spreads along the top edge of the low, running from the MO valley, through NE, into WY, and northeast CO.
  • NE, WY, and northeast CO are in line for significant snowfalls from late tonight-Friday, with totals of 3-8” in NE and WY, and 1-4” in northeast CO and extreme northwest KS.
  • If totals fluctuate at all, it’ll be to the higher end of the range in NE and WY.
  • Don’t see much activity south of I-70 in KS and there won’t be much north of I-90 in SD; areas like ND, OK, and TX look good the next few days as primarily the central part of the plains gets hit hard.
  • The snow is gone by Friday evening and high pressure keeps the entire length of the plains dry through the weekend as temps get back closer to normal.
  • Low pressure moves into north TX and OK Sunday night-Monday, with 75% coverage in OK totaling .25-.5” and doesn’t get farther south than the Red River in TX or farther north than US 54 in KS.
  • Moisture develops at midweek in the Four Corners region moving into the plains Tuesday night-Wednesday, but there won’t be a lot of moisture with it as it moves into the plains, so it may just bring a few scattered showers into KS and OK, totaling .25” or less.
  • ND may actually see some decent snowfall from this low Tuesday night-Wednesday and sweep into parts of MN, with totals of 1-4” possible, but it is a very hit and miss event and a large part of the plains won’t see anything.
  • Thunderstorms could fire off on Wednesday as a cold front lingers over OK and TX, possibily into southern KS, but overall coverage in the plains will only by 30%.
  • Thursday-Friday of next week look dry.

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