Cloudy skies in over the state today as we begin to move through a somewhat damp period. Light showers will dot the state today, but moisture availability will leave a little to be desired. The result will be nothing more than a few hundredths to perhaps as much as a quarter of an inch over about 50% of the state. However this is just the beginning. Strong southwest winds will be through the entire day, bringing mild air into the region. The cold front associated with this system moves through overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. This will bring rains of an additional .25”-.75” over about 80% of the state by the time we get to tomorrow evening. This will bring rain totals to upwards of an inch or more for the combined period. The rains will be leaving by late in the day. The map above shows total rains through tomorrow evening…but is likely a little overzealous in southern and southwestern IN.
Cooler air comes in behind the front, but we do not see temps really falling apart at this time. Temps ease back closer to normal, but will not go below normal in this period. We also see much drier air in for the balance of the week. Our next chance at some minor moisture comes Saturday midday and afternoon, as a few scattered rain showers move into the southern half to third of the state. There we can see up to .25” over about 30% of the region. Farther north, we can’t rule out a few snowflakes here and there, but in general, we don’t expect much. Dry again on Sunday.
Next week, we see a fairly significant low trying to pass by to the north over the great lakes region. This will produce some snows in MI and a bit of that snow potential may sneak into the northern row of counties here in Indiana sometime late Monday afternoon and Monday night. However, most of the precipitation stays at bay Monday. As the front associated with that low sweeps through, we likely see some light snow potential overnight Monday night into early Tuesday with cold air advancing in from the north. Available moisture does not look all that impressive, so we don’t look for much, but it will be interesting to watch to see what develops. Behind that front, cooler, drier air is in over the state for the balance of next week through Thursday.
In the extended window, we are watching what could be a very powerful low sweeping in for the end of next week on Friday. This is a strong low coming out of the central plains which will have plenty of available moisture streaming up out of the Gulf. This will bring potential for moderate to heavy rains and a few thunderstorms with strong south flow. We expect a short lived cold air blast behind it, but then another strong low coming out of the plains again for the 20th. So, the pattern looks like it may get very active at mid-month, and that active pattern may try and hold through the second half of March.