Regional Weather Outlook 2-27-17

Corn Belt weather:

  • Rains have developed in the mid-to-lower MS River valley and will rotate around the backside of high pressure today, dragging moisture along the southern edge of the Corn Belt along and south of the OH River valley.
  • They’ll see showers in southern IL, and southern IN but the bulk of the precipitation falls further south.
  • A big wave of energy comes out of the plains and into the Corn Belt overnight tonight, with moisture developing over the western Corn Belt, including IL, IA, and MO.
  • It comes in as light rains totaling .25-.5” to start over 60-70% of the Corn Belt through the day tomorrow, but far western locations like western IA, western MO, and western MN likely miss out.
  • Tomorrow night-Wednesday, this activity blows up into lines of heavy thunderstorms moving through IL, IN, and central MO, with strong to severe weather and very heavy rains.
  • Rainfall totals especially in the eastern Corn Belt will see 2-day totals of .5-2.5” possible, with 100% coverage in IL, IN, MI, and OH, plus 80% coverage in MO, 30% in IA, 20% in MN, and 50% in WI.
  • The moisture will be off to the east by Wednesday afternoon-night and high pressure moves in with cooler air, bringing temps back closer to normal/slightly below on Thursday.
  • Once the high is off to the east, south winds will moderate temps going into the weekend, giving dry weather Thursday-Sunday.
  • The next weather system works into the Corn Belt on Monday, with low pressure over MI and a cool front stretching out of it from the south and west, leading to rain totaling .5-1.5” across the eastern Corn Belt, plus snow wraps around the top/backside in WI and MI.
  • There will be a dry slot as MO and parts of IL likely miss out on the moisture.
  • Another strong high pressure dome follows it in late Tuesday-Thursday, and as you look to the western part of the country, there’s nothing off to the west, which means a dry stretch going through March 10-12.
  • The extended forecast shows a little action on March 14-15, but it has trouble with a big upper level ridge across the western US for most of the extended forecast period.

 

Deep South weather:

  • We saw showers and thunderstorms this morning over the lower MS River valley, moving through MS, AL, and GA today but they’ll disappear before they get all the way east.
  • Rain will total .25-1” but coverage will only be 30% by the time it moves into GA.
  • Another front tries to sweep into the Deep South tomorrow as an offshoot of circulation further north, so the initial moisture will be heaviest in parts of KY, TN, northern MS, and northern AL.
  • It’s mostly light action with .25-.5” totals, but there could be stronger thunderstorms moving into western TN and AR Tuesday night-Wednesday.
  • The front does reach down to the Gulf areas, but they’ll only see .03-.25” over about 80% of the Deep South.
  • Strong high pressure comes in behind it and keeps things dry Thursday-Sunday before a little precipitation comes up the backside of the high in LA Sunday night-Monday morning.
  • It’s mostly scattered light showers totaling .25” to a third of an inch, with 50% coverage in LA.
  • Another cold front in the Corn Belt stretches down into the Deep South, bringing rain in AR Monday afternoon, spreading east across western TN, into MS, and AL, with some of the heaviest thunderstorms developing right along the Gulf Coast Monday night-Tuesday.
  • The front holds together and some of these moderate rains will sweep through the entire eastern part of the region.
  • Next week’s rain totals could be a multi-day combination of .5-1.5” with coverage at 90% of the Deep South.
  • Another strong high pressure dome will move in with good winds keeping things dry, with sunshine dominating from Wednesday-Friday.

 

Great Plains weather:

  • Low pressure moves through the plains over the next 24 hours, bringing light precipitation to NE and South Dakota, which may be light snowfall, and some may wander into northeast CO, with coverage at 20%.
  • High pressure will dominate and keep things dry in the plains through the rest of the week, from Tuesday night-Sunday, before a minor system moves through the northern plains on Sunday night in ND and northern SD, leaving a coating to 3” possible.
  • The big system kicking off next week develops just outside of the plains.
  • Other than the light precipitation over the next 24-36 hours, there won’t be any precipitation over the next 10-14 days.
  • Temps are going to be up and down, averaging slightly above normal but they won’t run away to the upside, and there will be a few days that are a bit cooler than others.

 

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