Indiana Weather Outlook 3-21-17

We continue to see our weather develop into a very active pattern here as we finish the month of march. Yesterday’s rain totals were much more impressive in some spots, with moderate to heavy rains over the central and northeast parts of the state. Today we take a little break in most areas, and we should see some good weather through tomorrow and Thursday as well. The only exception will be down in extreme southern Indiana late this afternoon and tonight, as we may see some scattered showers and even a thunderstorm or two sneak in from US 50 southward, and in particular, near the river. Coverage will only be 25%, and rain totals mostly minor…but it is a feature to watch.
High pressure, albeit minor high pressure, will be in control for tomorrow and into early Thursday. This high will pass by mostly to the north, and should promote sunshine over most of the state. Temps may pull back slightly tomorrow, but will still be nearly normal, before south winds start to push our trend back higher again for late in the week. As those south winds develop, we can see some scattered light shower action pop up along a weak warm front lifting through the northern part of the state Thursday night into early Friday. Rain totals can be up to .25” from US 24 northward, with coverage at 50%. The rest of the state stays dry.gfs_pr6_slp_t850_indy_23

A strong cold front sweeps through the state this weekend. Moderate to heavy rains are likely Saturday with the potential for strong thunderstorms, then wrap around scattered showers hold in for Sunday. Weekend rain totals have the potential to be from .25”-1.5” with 100% coverage. The higher end of the range will be triggered by the potential for strong thunderstorms. The map above shows a snapshot of rain potential around midnight Saturday night.

A brief dry period should be in for next Monday and early Tuesday, but clouds will be thickening through Tuesday midday and afternoon. Then we have our next system moving through for Tuesday night through Thursday. Rain totals look to be from .25”-1” with coverage at 75% of the state. We see some significant holes in the coverage right now, but with the low pressure center tracking right over the state, there is a pretty good chance that those coverage holes fill in between now and the system’s arrival.

In the extended window, we would not be surprised to see a secondary wave of moisture coming up an old frontal boundary for next Friday that brings another half to 1 inch of rain, but there is potential that the second wave just gets absorbed into the system we are talking about for next Wednesday through Thursday morning…so stay tuned. Farther out in the extended period, our active pattern holds with another strong system coming out of the central plains and right across our state for the 3rd and 4th. This system likely has moderate to heavy rains, and the threat for some stronger thunderstorms. Rain totals likely can be half to 1.5”. There is nothing in this forecast that makes us stray from our thinking that we enter planting with surplus moisture in the soil profile.

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