Indiana Weather Outlook 3-22-17

Cold air is in over the state today as high pressure passes by to our north. North winds developed yesterday afternoon around the leading edge of the high pressure circulation, and that was responsible for the cloud development. Today, we should see more sunshine break through, even though temps are significantly cooler. Our temps today will be close to or even a bit below normal. However, as we transition to the backside of the high pressure this afternoon, south winds return, and temps should start to moderate. South winds help to fuel the warming tomorrow as well. But, anytime you put a switch together like that, you have to be on the lookout for a warm frontal boundary formation, and we think we see a minor warm front slipping through late tomorrow. This may be enough to trigger a few scattered light showers tomorrow night into early Friday, but only over the northern half to third of the state. Even there, the action is very hit and miss. WE look for rain totals of a few hundredths to a tenth maximum, coverage at no more than 20-30%.

The rest of Friday looks dry, and then we have a wet weekend. A strong cold front and low pressure circulation move in for Saturday and we have wrap around moisture for Sunday. There is the potential for some good thunderstorms with the cold front on Saturday as well. WE are looking for 2 day rain totals of .25”-1.5” with coverage at 80% of the state or more. However, the upper half of that rain range will be only for areas that see the thunderstorm development Saturday. Without the thunderstorms, this is more likely a .25”-.5” event, with a few areas sneaking closer to .75”.

A brief break comes in overnight Sunday night through the first part of Monday, but quickly we get our next wave for Monday afternoon into midday Tuesday. Rains with that little system will be from .1”-6” with coverage at about 60%. We think that coverage may be able to improve as we get closer to the event. The rains will be nice, gentle rains for the most part, with nearly normal to slightly above normal temps.

gfs_tprecip_indy_41Mostly dry for Wednesday and Thursday, although clouds may be a big player for next Wednesday. Our next strong front and system comes in next Friday midday, the 31st, and will have .25”-1” rain potential with 80% coverage. In the extended period, the active pattern continues, with a strong, severe weather producing system likely coming out of the central plains and across the state for the 2nd through the 3rd. Moderate to heavy rains can be with that as we look for totals of .5”-2” and 100% coverage. Another front moves in around the 6th, this time coming from the northern plains and upper Midwest. That track means we are looking at more gentle rains, with a quarter to third of an inch possible toward the end of the 11-16 day window. The above map is an estimate of cumulative rain totals over the coming 10 days…the pattern is very active indeed!

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