Indiana Weather Outlook 4-28-17

Showers develop across the state today as our next strong storm feature starts its push out of the plains into the Corn Belt. Showers likely hold off until early to midafternoon in most areas, and when they start, they will be light. WE also expect the showers to start first in south and southwest Indiana and build from there. Rains today likely will stay under.3”, and coverage will be about 60%.

Overnight tonight, rains start to increase in frequency, and then we see several waves of moisture move through over the weekend and through Monday. We will keep rain totals at 1-3.5” with coverage at 100%. WE can see stronger thunderstorms and severe weather cannot be ruled out. Flooding is also a distinct possibility, but we do not want to amp this up as much as everyone else seems to be. The long and short of it is that we have too much rain coming in the next 3-4 days.

gfs_tprecip_indy_41Dry Tuesday and most of Wednesday statewide. Then showers develop over southern Indiana late Wednesday through Thursday. These showers will stay south of I-70 and will produce no more than .25”-.5” with 60-70% coverage south of I-70. There will be no rain up north. In fact, we see consecutive dry days from Tuesday through Sunday in the north. The one interruption Wednesday night and Thursday will be in in the south as well…so the intermediate forecast actually is not too bad. Problem is that we likely just get way to much rain this weekend for the good dry stretch to matter that much. Above is a map of 10 day rainfall potential.

High pressure over the Southeast US keeps IN/OH trending dry for the 8th and 9th, starting the extended forecast window. During that time, moisture is coming up the backside of the high across northern MO, IA, northern IL, WI/MN and MI. if the high wobbles or moves east sooner, rains will easily come in. But, for now, WE look for a strong lot to wait until the 10th-12th to move across the state. It will bring .5”-1.25” rains with 90% coverage.

Another strong low is likely toward the end of the extended period, around the 13th=14th, with rain totals of .5”-1.5” and coverage of 100%.

Temps will be rather cool at times this upcoming week as colder air funnels in behind this weekend’s system. However, we will not be as cold as what we are seeing in the plains this weekend. A couple of days this week we can have highs do no better than the lower 50s…but overnight lows should stay above freezing. Soil temps are in the 60s over most of the state….so while a few cold days will take temps down, we don’t think they will go below 50 degrees at the 4 inch level.

 

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