Indiana Weather Outlook 5-8-17

High pressure starts the day directly over the top of central Indiana. Temps dropped below freezing over the northern part of the state, the coldest in weeks, and well below normal. These temps were colder than we had been expecting…but we should bounce back closer to normal in the days to come. Still, it bears noting that we are not looking at any significant warm up to well above normal levels this coming week.

gfs_tprecip_indy_12A warm front does try and move through tomorrow as the high moves away. This will trigger some scattered showers over about 60% of the state. Moisture totals do not look that impressive, but can be up to a half an inch in most areas that get rain. We have a little concern about central and especially east central Indiana with regard to potential thunderstorm development later tomorrow afternoon and evening. If they do break out, we could see some areas that part of the state get closer to an inch of totals precipitation. The rains will be most prevalent 75 miles either side of a line from Gary to Richmond. The above map shows rain totals through Wednesday morning.

Drier Wednesday. However, overnight Wednesday night and through Thursday, we do see moisture coming back to the southern half of the state, and some showers may make it as far north as US24. Rains will be most impressive south of I-70. WE can see rains linger through Friday as well over the southern third of the state. Combined totals can be .25”-1” with coverage at 80% of the area from I-70 southward, and about 50% coverage from I-70 to US24. North of US24, we likely see nothing.

The weekend will be dry, and Monday and Tuesday of next week as well. WE see a little bit of light moisture forming over western IL next Wednesday, but if it manages to stay at bay, that would mean the entire state would be dry for 5 consecutive days…the longest streak in quite some time. And, over the northern third of the state, that streak would be 8 days…going back to this Wednesday. That will be welcome news to many producers. And, as we will point out below, the streak has potential to extend into the 11-16 day forecast window.

In the extended period, we are dry to start for next Thursday through the end of the weekend. However, starting Monday, the 22nd, we see a strong storm complex slowly moving across the Corn Belt, and it will bring rains to Indiana for the 22nd-24th with rain totals of half to 1.5” and coverage at 100%. That system looks to be a nice rain maker.

 

 

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