Indiana Weather Outlook 6-13-17

Scattered shower action tries to back into the Hoosier state from the east and southeast this afternoon. However, we still are in a strong south flow pattern, meaning we see another day of high temps and high humidity. The showers that pop up this afternoon and evening will be widely scattered, with coverage at 50% of areas from I-70 northward. Rain totals should be limited to a few tenths or less, but we have to keep an eye out for heat based thunderstorms skewing those rain totals a bit.

Tomorrow, we see showers moving through in advance of our next front. There can be some action early in the morning in far north and northeast Indiana, then better coverage action later in the afternoon and tomorrow evening state wide. Our cold front does not arrive until Thursday, so this will still be pre-frontal action, but will have better coverage than today’s action. We can expect .1”-.5” of rain over about 60% of the state tomorrow.

Thursday brings the actual frontal passage and the rain and thunderstorm action sweeps through most of the state. Rain totals of .25”-.75” will be seen over about 75% of the state. Friday should be mostly dry.

gfs_tprecip_indy_28Two strong fronts move through the state this weekend. The first, for Saturday, brings .25”-1” of rain to about 80% of the state. The second, later Sunday through Sunday night, can bring .5”-1” to 90% of the state. Thunderstorms will be widespread and strong with the Sunday event. All told, this brings rain totals from now through Sunday night to 1-2.5” over about 90% of the state. The map show rain accumulation through 6 AM Monday morning

Dry Monday and Tuesday of next week, but we are seeing significant strengthening of our next system at midweek next week. For next Wednesday through early Thursday we can see 1-2.5” of rain over 80% of the state. Far southern parts of Indiana may miss out on that event. This low may still try and miss to the north, if we see a strong upper level ridge build in for early next week. So, we are not sold on this solution yet…but confidence is growing.

The extended window is mostly dry this morning. We see no major rain events or fronts sweeping in from next Thursday the 22nd through the 27th. Our next chance of rain may develop around the 28th, with rain potential of .25”-1”, but only over about 30% of the state (mostly far north).

The dry extended period featuring a building upper level ridge, combined with strong high pressure to start next week gives us the idea that we may see ridging start sooner (early next week is our thought), and that may steer the midweek system next week out of our neck of the woods – hence our hedging words above. Stay tuned.

Temps through the entire rest of June look to be mostly above normal, and at their coolest, near normal. Heat likely will redevelop next week and for the extended period.

 

 

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