Indiana Weather Outlook 8-2-17

gfs_tprecip_indy_12 (2)Our weather pattern gets a little more active today and stays that way through the end of the week. Yesterday we had a fairly large cluster of rain and thunderstorm action fire off in Illinois, while most of Indiana only saw clouds, a decent amount of thunder and some hit and miss precipitation. Today that action gets more consistent and wider ranging geographically, and then we see a second wave coming tomorrow late afternoon through the overnight and into Friday. All told, precipitation the next several days will yield at least .25”- 1”, and we have concern that any stronger thunderstorm (especially tomorrow night) may push a few totals over an inch. Still, we look for coverage out of this event to be at 70%. There also will be plenty of dry stretches in-between rains too, so do not look for the entire upcoming 2 and a half day period to be wet. The map above shows precipitation totals through Friday morning.

 

We should dry down later Friday afternoon, and then see a mostly dry weekend as high pressure settles in for Saturday, leaving on Sunday.

 

Our next little wave of action is still on track for Monday arrival, and we may see clouds build ahead of this already Sunday afternoon. Rains Monday seem to want to shift a bit farther south, bringing rains up to 1 inch in central and southern Indiana, but perhaps only a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch over the northern third of the state. Some models are trying to start scattered weak shower action Sunday night, but we are not going to make that change to our forecast yet.

 

Mostly dry for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week and temps may climb a bit with strong south flow on Wednesday ahead of our next system.

 

That storm complex arrives Thursday, and it is the strong system that will be coming out of the central plains. There is plenty of rain with this system, and it will hit all areas. Right now, we are going to put rains at half to 1.5” over 80-90% of the state. Those rain totals are down slightly from our first read of the system going back to the start of the week, but we are still impressed with the scope of the event and have concern about at least 1 line of strong to severe thunderstorm wit the system as it moves through, likely later Thursday afternoon or Thursday night. Any strong to severe storm could bump those rain totals considerably on a localized scale.

 

Behind that front, we look to cool of and dry down just a bit wit high pressure coming in for next Friday the 11th, lingering into the 12th. Models are in disagreement about the extended period, but we think that it would be problematic to completely remove precipitation in the period, mostly because the air mass change (cooler Canadian air) will likely breed some hit and miss showers. That being said, a strong Canadian high pressure dome does look poised to try and move over the great lakes for a large part of the 11-16 day period. We are keeping an eye on the 13th and early 14th for scattered hit and miss showers, and then a much stronger front for the 17th. That second front may have some .25”-.5” rain potential.

 

Temps through the upcoming period look or be pretty decent. We expect no major heat, and in general, we will stay very close to normal through mid month. We have one concern for temps spiking, and that will be ahead of next week’s strong system…so perhaps Wednesday we see well above normal temps. The rest of the period looks good.

 

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