Today should be the last mostly dry day in our string that dates back to the first few days of august in some cases. We have a fairly powerful storm complex moving in overnight tonight and it will give us rain through the day tomorrow. Today, full sunshine will start the day, but we expect clouds to begin to develop this afternoon, and by late afternoon it’s not out of the question to see some scattered showers in over western and southwestern parts of the state. Still, the biggest rains are set for overnight and definitely tomorrow. Temperatures should be warm statewide today.
We see a strong thunderstorms trying to develop along one of the frontal boundaries over the state tomorrow. This will trigger some heavy rains, mostly over the northern half to northern third of the state. The European model seems to have really taken a dive off the deep end with this scenario, bringing some 3”+ rains in along or north of US 24. Now, we think the rain totals that high are likely overdone, but we cannot stress enough that we will be looking at some scattered strong and severe weather off and on tomorrow, especially in the afternoon. Overall, we look for rain totals from tonight through tomorrow to be .25”-1” with 80% coverage, and the wont rule out some totals that push closer to 1.5”. However, we must say, like we have over the past few days, that any moves into the upper part of the precipitation range will take a push from strong thunderstorms. All of the precipitation is done by tomorrow night around midnight. The map above shows likely precipitation totals through 6 AM Friday morning.
Dry weather is in for Friday, although it will be cooler and a bit of a transition day. That means clouds can be with us off and on through the Friday time frame, and we can’t even completely rule out a spit or sprinkle, but the day should be pretty much dry with no new significant precipitation threats. We then continue the dry pattern through the weekend and through Monday. Some models are trying to bring scattered light moisture in to the northern third of the state Saturday, but there is significant model disagreement, and even the models that show it have decreased the intensity greatly over the past 24 hours. So, we do not see a need to change our forecast…but instead will talk drier weather while watching for any re-strengthening of this minor disturbance.
Our next front looks to come in a little sooner, with rains spreading across the state now next Tuesday. There is some model disagreement here too, with the European favoring a faster arrival, and other models still slowing. The takeaway is that there is a system here, somewhere in the Tuesday to Thursday timeframe, and it will bring moisture. However, the associated moisture is not as impressive, and we are dialing back rain totals out of the event. For now, we will look for .25”-1”” rains, about half of what we had been forecasting, as the strength of the front moving east is just not there. It may go through some resurgence and we will address that if and when it happe3ns, but for now, we are not promising as much moisture next week.
The rest of the 10-day period and the extended 11-16 day forecast window will be dominated by a strong upper level high parking over Ontario from the end of next week through the end of the month. This will bring sunny, dry weather in to finish out August, with temps slowly climbing, but staying within a few degrees of normal.