Continued sunny, pleasant and dry today over the entire state. Our dry pattern will continue through the weekend and our forecast is unchanged this morning. One thing to note…as high pressure moves across the region over the next 24 hours, air will stay to the cooler side of normal. However, “cold” air is not a concern. We mention this because we saw some other weather outlets trying to advance fears about some temps pushing into the upper 30s in IN or OH tomorrow morning. We do not see that at all, and think that the attempt to push a cold air narrative is way too much over the top. But, as south winds develop around the back side of the high, we will see temps move back upward through the weekend.
We are on track for our next rain threat to unfold over the first half of next week. We still think a few thunderstorms can dot the landscape later Monday afternoon, mostly in central or southern Indiana, and we have to keep an eye out for rain through Wednesday. The way things are coming together right now, we could see Tuesday turn out to be the day with heaviest precipitation, by virtue of better thunderstorm development. Several models suggest that we may see a couple lines of thunderstorms through the day Tuesday, extending north to south across the state. Those thunderstorms will have the potential to boost rain totals. However, we are not going to change our thoughts that much, only raising the upper end of our range a quarter of an inch. If thunderstorms play a bigger role on Tuesday, yes, we can see higher rain totals, but we also will see coverage suffer…giving much more of a hit and miss component to the event. Still, we are holding with rain potential of .25”-1.5” with coverage of 80% of the state through Wednesday.
Mostly dry next Thursday and Friday while we see the remains of Hurricane Harvey pass by to the south. We still think the heavy rain from that post tropical event will stay south of the OH River, but we continue to watch closely. Dry then for Saturday through Labor Day Monday as well, with nearly normal temps.
Our next system in the extended period looks to come just a little sooner now, moving in for the 5th and lingering through the 7th. Rain totals over the 3-day period are slightly higher, since we are putting in one more day with precipitation from this event. So, we are looking at rain totals of .25”-1.25 over 90% of the state. This front sweeps through from west to east, and has good moisture as it develops…so this will be a nice rain for all. Temps behind the front go cooler as we head toward September 8th, 9th and 10th.