No significant change to our forecast this morning. Some moisture moved through yesterday, and we do not think we are done yet today. Our cold front is still off to the west and will move through later this afternoon. We look for scattered showers through the day, no more than a few hundredths up to .4” tops, but coverage will be only around 50% today. There will be a lot of areas that miss out. Everything will be done by midnight tonight.
Dry for tomorrow, and that dryness continues through at least the end of the week. Our concern about a weak trough for Thursday over the northern part of the state has been allayed, and we don’t think there is any action popping up over the state in the meantime. Temps will be on the cooler side of normal.
The period we are keeping an eye on is late Friday night through midday Saturday. There seems to be more of a push toward seeing the remains of Harvey come up into southern Indiana for that period. This is being fueled by Harvey moving back slightly over the gulf and then looping around to make a second landfall. This would allow some strengthening, and the momentum may create a more northerly path. We are not completely sold on this solution yet, as these tracks can get really crazy, but this has more traction today than yesterday, and we would put the potential for this happening a little higher. IF that turned out to be the case, southern Indiana could see 1-3 inches of rain, and fringe totals of .25”-1” could move up into central Indiana, near the I-70 corridor. For now, we will leave our forecast unchanged, and that is still mostly dry…but keep this potential rain event in mind as we look forward. The northern part of the state will be unaffected. The map above is the Canadian model take on the situation. The European is much stronger and wetter, while the GFS is nonchalant.
The rest of the Labor Day weekend through midweek next week should be dry.
Temps will be moving to normal levels to start, but we do expect a pull back to below normal temps later next week as colder air comes in out of Canada. We do not have any concern about early frost, even though that talking point seems to be making the rounds. We are watching for a front bringing .25”-.75” rains around the 7th, and then in the extended window another front around the 12th.