Indiana Weather Outlook 11-1-17

We have a very unsettled weather pattern unfolding over the state through the rest of this week, the weekend and the early start of next week. So far, the week has been cold. We still see that today, especially this morning, but a significant warming push will be in for tomorrow through Sunday. A strong cold front takes temps back down for next week. Quite the roller coaster.

Precipitation is pushing up into the state from the south and west this morning. With the cold air in place as this upper low races in, we think that we have to keep an eye out for both wet snow and some light rain today. The snow potential will be the biggest this morning as we come off our coldest temps of the day, with scattered rain showers later this morning and afternoon. Action will be limited to central and southern Indiana where we have .02”-.25” liquid equivalent potential, and only clouds over the northern third of the state. Rains pick up over northern Indiana overnight tonight, where we can see a few hundredths to up to .4”

Tomorrow we can see additional scattered showers bringing .05”-.5” with 50% coverage, mostly over the northern half to two thirds of the state. Friday a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch can pop up over the southern third of the state, and nothing up north.

gfs_tprecip_indy_27.pngWe start the weekend on Saturday with slightly more active weather statewide, where we have rain chances of .1”-.5” over 80% of the state, and will follow that up with a trace to .2” over only 40% of the state on Sunday. Finally, the big, impressive frontal passage works in Sunday night through early Monday, where we can see thunderstorms and some moderate to heavy rains. Rain totals there can be .25”-1.25” over 90% of the state. The heaviest rains and upper end of that range will be over the northern half to northern third of the state, and may end up developing close to the US 24 corridor. All told, in the 6 days combined, we can see rains totaling half to 1.5” over 90% of the state. The map above shows on model solution for rain potential today through next Monday night. But, we must reiterate…this will not be a constant rain scenario. In fact, there will many, many lulls and breaks in rain action. We just are unable to look at any day out of the next 6 and say we will be fully dry over the entire state.

We begin to dry down Monday midday and afternoon over the central and northern parts of the state, but it is conceivable that we see showers linger over the southern quarter to third of the state, especially along the Ohio River. The entire state will then be dry for next Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures will drop off substantially behind the front, and we look for temps to be mostly normal to below normal for the balance of the week next week.

In the extended period, we continue to see the only threat of scattered showers coming with a minor upper level disturbance drifting across the great lakes around 13th and perhaps a slightly better organized front for the 15th. Moisture totals from each, at this point, look to be under .3”.

 

 

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