Indiana Weather Outlook 11-13-17

An active pattern over the next 10 days will allow no more than 2 to 3 days of dry weather in-between weather systems. Temps near normal mean we do not expect groundbreaking drying with those periods either. That being said, only one of the next 4 weather events looks to promote excessive rains, and we have no snow chances coming. The map below shows cumulative rain totals from the next 3 systems over the coming 10 days. We outline these below.

We have high pressure moving over the state today behind that weak low that brought the on and off rains yesterday. This high will bring cooler air today, even with sunshine, but on the backside tomorrow, south winds should allow for some minor moderation. However, our thoughts from last week of temps potentially getting above normal are long gone, and a move back to normal will be about all we can do. Either way, sun the next two days will feel better than the dreary close to the weekend.

gfs_tprecip_indy_41Our next system arrives Wednesday and will bring some moisture with it. The cold front drops .1”-.5” over about 80% of the state from Wednesday mid-morning on through sunset. These rains do not look overly intense, and will be similar to recent rains we have seen. We are back to dry weather with some sunshine for Thursday.

A stronger frontal complex arrives for the start of the weekend. Clouds will be building through the day Friday, and rains could start to overspread the state Friday night. They will be light at first, with only a few hundredths to a tenth or two for Friday late afternoon and evening up to midnight. But much heavier rains come as the low pressure center comes close overnight Friday night through the first half of Saturday. That could actually trigger some stronger thunderstorms for Saturday, and will be where the heaviest rains come. All told, from sunset Friday night through sunset Saturday we can expect .25”-1” over 100% of the state. This will be a significant rain event and will lead to likely delays through the next rain event.

We go dry for Sunday and Monday, although Sunday we may be stuck with some lingering clouds over a large part of the state. Colder air comes in behind that system on strong northwest winds, and the coldest day will be Sunday.

Next Tuesday, another fast moving low tracks across the state, coming in from the southwest. This will bring .05”-.5” to 70% of the state. We do not expect enough drying for field work ahead of this event, and so these rains will just add to the delays as we move toward Thanksgiving. We should be dry for next Wednesday, the day ahead of Thanksgiving.

For the extended period, we look to start it off dry for Thanksgiving Day itself. However the cause for this dryness on Thanksgiving Day will be a strong upper level, Canadian high diving into the eastern part of the US, which means we can see temps below normal with a cold shot for Thanksgiving Day. At this time, we are not going to talk this up as a massive cold shot, but will watch the evolution of the high and its track southeast. On the backside of the high we can see minor threat of precipitation for late on Black Friday (24th) into the 25th. Moisture totals do not look impressive, but we will keep an eye out for a few hundredths to a tenth or two over about 60% of the state.


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