No change in our pattern this morning. We still see 3 systems moving through the state over the coming 10 days. However, today should be better than yesterday, as we should have better potential for sunshine. High pressure is moving off to the east, and south winds will allow clouds to break up.
A front moves into the area tomorrow and brings some minor rains with it. We are keeping our rain totals at .1”-.5” over 70% of the state from tomorrow mid-morning through sunset. That coverage number is slightly smaller than our previous forecast. The rains look fairly gentle and low key.
A slight pause brings dry weather for Thursday, but clouds likely hold on thanks to colder air pushing in. Our next system is moving a little faster, and may start to bring rains as soon as Friday midday. This faster arrival is another reason we are skeptical that we see any significant sun for Thursday. Rains continue for Friday afternoon and most of Saturday. The threat of thunderstorms does not look as strong this morning, thanks to less heating and instability. Still, we are looking for some fairly good rain totals over time. From Friday midday through sunset Saturday we still look for .25”-.75” over 90% of the state – which takes just a little bit off the top end of our previous rain range, and backs coverage off ever so slightly.
The weekend system arriving a little sooner means we are drier a bit sooner as well. We stay dry for Sunday and Monday, but think that we have a better chance for sun by Sunday midday. High pressure will move through, and colder air will be here. The winds to not look as strong for Sunday, but can still be brisk.
Moisture is back for next Tuesday as another quick moving system comes in from the west and southwest. Rain totals are not overly impressive, but can give us a few hundredths to as much as .4” over 70% of the state. This system will be more looked at for the air mass it leads in. We expect a nice push of cold, Canadian air to move into the region for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day. Temps likely move to below normal levels at midweek and stay there through the holiday weekend.
In the extended period, we are starting to trend just a little drier on the whole, mostly due to the cold Canadian air that wants to camp over the eastern US. The upper level high steers most systems by to the north or erodes the small moisture content that tries to nose in. At this point, we will keep an eye out for a few flurries around the 24th into the 25th, but those are not likely a big story. A bigger story may be our first look at some lake effect snow in northern parts of the state, with strong winds coming straight down the fetch of lake Michigan. Now, that is not a large system, and therefore we can say the pattern is drier, but it is news for our northern and NW IN communities. Its way too early to really jump in with both feet on a lake effect projection, but since it’s a holiday weekend, we will be keeping a close eye on it. The rest of the state and the rest of the extended period look to be uneventful.