It is cold this morning over the state, and we are getting reports of some subzero temps in areas that were able to clear out last night in NW Indiana. High pressure moves across southern Indiana through the day today. However, today’s chill is not the hot topic of discussion in the forecast.
Snow returns to northern Indiana tonight and continues through tomorrow. Models are at odds over this system, with one model saying 3-6 inches as the max snow near the Michigan line, and the other saying a ribbon of 11-13 inch totals will fall right across the middle of the northern third of the state. The interesting thing is, the model that is usually overzealous on snow is the one being conservative, and the one that has the poorest track record at catching heavy snow events is the one that is going over the top. The answer likely lies in the middle. We look for snow to be in the 5-8 inch range from SR 4 down to US 30. The southern bound of snow is unchanged from our previous discussions, down to US 24. However, snow totals will drop off rather quickly the closer you get to US 24. This is truly a northern Indiana event, with only flurry south of US 24 for tomorrow and nothing south of I-70 for the same period. We do have a second wave coming through Saturday and Sunday that will bring 1-3 inches statewide, so that at the end of the weekend, we see snow on the ground for 90% of the state. Up north, be prepared for traffic to move a little slow tomorrow.
Next week is drier, with bitter cold air in for Monday. Subzero temps are likely over almost all of the state north of I-70. After that cold start to the week, we have temps moderate a bit Tuesday, before clouds and colder air returns for Wednesday. High pressure dominates next Thursday and temps climb again on Friday. We do have some scattered light snow showers possible overnight Friday night into early Saturday, mostly over the northeast quarter of the state. On Saturday, we turn colder and drier again.
The extended pattern is more active again, with 3 systems in 5 days. One on the 18th brings rain mixed with snow, and liquid equivalent precipitation of a quarter to half inch. On the 20th we see half to 1 inch of moisture coming through (liquid equivalent) and on the 21st we can see 1-2 inches of liquid, potentially coming as mostly snow. Then we are dry and cold through the 23rd.