Indiana Weather Outlook 2-28-18

A damp day kicks off over the southern half of Indiana this morning. Rains look to have good coverage from I-70 southward today, with rain totals of .25”-.75”. We can’t rule out some spits, sprinkles and plenty of clouds from I-70 northward, but the good moisture just does not go that direction. Strong winds out of the southwest today will promote another mild afternoon.

Tomorrow we have rain spreading over most of the state. Strong low pressure moves from central IL into north central Ohio. Notice this track of the low is farther south. This track will give 70% coverage across Indiana of rains from .25”-1”. These will skew more over the northern 2/3rds of the state. Rain will end as snow in northern areas tomorrow night from US 24 northward. Everything should be done by shortly after midnight tomorrow night. Snows can accumulate a coating to an inch or two from US 30 north, and only have some flakes in the air to a fresh coating south of US 30. The strong northern flow around the backside of the system is what really gives the potential for snow to develop. And we can see heavier snow potential just a bit farther north into Michigan. That being said, the European model is by far the heaviest on snow, and the GFS is downplaying the entire event. We think the answer lies somewhere in the middle. Still, winds will be very strong, at 20-40 mph, and that will cause some visibility issues and low wind chills

We are dry, but cool on Friday, and we stay dry and chilly through Saturday. We should start to see some temperature moderation Sunday, and next Monday will bring mild temps. That will be a nice 4 day dry stretch to allow Thursday’s moisture to move away and through the soil profile.

Scattered showers look less impressive this morning for next Monday night into Tuesday. We are dropping rain totals back to a few hundredths to .25” over 80% of the state. The best chances come right around Tuesday morning. But early afternoon, action is already off to the east.

We can see some light snow and flurry action as north winds come across the lakes on Wednesday, but in general, if we miss out on the light snow and flurry potential, we will be dry through next Friday, but definitely colder. WE should see temps mostly normal to below normal through that period.

The extended continues to show scattered precipitation for the 10th through the 12th. While action does not look as impressive, we still are leaving the door open for .25”-.75” across the region. We then have a weak wave for the 14th that brings a few hundredths to a quarter inch, and then a low over the great lakes for the 15th that brings .25”-.5”. Temps will be chilly to start the 11-16 day period, but will moderate to near and slightly above normal levels by mid-month.

 

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