Rains move across the state today with good rain totals likely. We look for amounts to range from .25” all the way through 1.25” with coverage at 70% of the state. The best chance for the upper end of that range will be in the northern third of the state, and we would skew rain chances in general better over the northern half to two-thirds of the state. Rains will be winding down this evening, but we won’t rule out action ending as some sloppy wet snowflakes well to the north in Indiana, closer to the Michigan line. At this time, we think most of that area will dodge significant accumulation, as the coldest air does not make it in fast enough to work with good moisture to trigger bigger snows.
Colder air in for Friday, but in general we are dry for 4 full days, Friday through next Monday. Temps will slowly gain during the period, ending up above normal again to start next week with south flow ahead of our next front.
That front arrives next Monday night and is gone by midday Tuesday. It may even move through faster. Moisture is unimpressive and we are leaving totals at a few hundredths of an inch to no more than .25” over about 80% of the state. Much colder air comes in behind that front and ill likely trigger some light snow and flurry action that lingers through Wednesday. There does not look to be too much available moisture to work with, so these will likely be nuisance flurries, but it also means we will not return to bright, sunny, spring like weather right away either. Temps stay below normal for most of the rest of next week. Sun is back for Thursday and Friday.
A strong low moves back into the region for Saturday the 10th. Nice rains come in on the front side of the low in the warm sector, and we see rains ending up in the .25”-.75” range with coverage at 100% of the state. A second wave for the 12th is showing signs of drifting farther south. We will see. If it does, that likely means colder air funnels in here to fill the gap.
Over the rest of the extended period we stay dry up through the 15th. On the 16th another strong low comes out of the central plains and moves across the state. This could have some .25”-1” rain potential. However, there is plenty of uncertainty in the extended period…as we were much wetter from the 12th through the 15th a day or two ago. It will be a period to watch. At this time, we would say our bias is toward less moisture at mid-month.