Indiana Weather Outlook 3-6-18

Rain and wet snow is moving out of the state this morning, but cold air looks to hang around for a good while yet. Clouds will dominate the region today, and we won’t rule out some wet snowflakes here and there this afternoon, although action will be very very limited.

 

Cold air will be the main feature of the rest of the week. That cold air mixes with a little bit of moisture coming in from the NW tomorrow, and will trigger some light snow and flurry action statewide. We look for 60% coverage, with no significant accumulation. That being said, a coating on grassy surfaces or cars still has the potential to be seen in some areas. Lake enhancement also is something to look out for in far northern Indiana. Liquid equivalent moisture tomorrow will be only a few hundredths to a tenth. Temperatures struggle to break the lower 30s tomorrow and Thursday over the northern half of the state, and 40 can be a stretch down south. Thursday we should see sunshine reappear, and on Friday, we start to see temps moderate just a bit. However, we think that temps still do no better than normal for Friday statewide. Southwest winds developing Friday afternoon will start to bring slightly warmer air up into the state.

 

Our next system is still on track for the start of the weekend. However, it is coming a little faster, and we see precipitation breaking out overnight Friday through Saturday morning over the southern half of the state. Clouds will be seen statewide, but we think precipitation will be very limited north of I-70, and nothing falls north of US 24. As cold air still wants to be in control for this period, especially with the timing now shifting to an overnight period, so we have to allow for a mix of rain and wet snow from I-70 down into Kentucky. Liquid equivalent precipitation totals will be .25”-.33” with nearly 100% coverage south of I-70. At this time, the track of the system remains more east than north, so we do not think that moisture lifts up into northern Indiana or NW Ohio.

 

A new wrinkle is in for Sunday. Models late yesterday started throwing another weekend wave in, with a nice batch of moisture tracking across the state from NW to SE on Sunday. Liquid precipitation potential is from .1”-.6” and we think that can come predominately as wet snow, with some rain mixing in. That would lead to some potential accumulations, unless temps moderate more than we expect right now. WE are tentatively trending our forecast wetter for this weekend, while looking for a few confirming models runs this morning to really hone in on timing and track.

 

Dry weather remains in our forecast for next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Next thus day we start to see some light precipitation come in from the west, the likely leading edge of our system for the 16th. Moisture totals do not look all that impressive yet, but we expect the system to strengthen. For the rest of the extended period, moderating temps are expected with normal and above normal temperatures in for most of the second half of the month. We continue to watch a system for the 20th and 21st, where we can see some rains of half to 1 inch at least. Strong southwest flow in the extended 11-16 day forecast window will lead to a slightly higher chance of stormy weather.

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