Our forecast pattern is basically unchanged this morning. We have at least 2 more dry days statewide, today and tomorrow. Temps will be near normal, but winds stay brisk enough for us to feel a chill. We should see temps climb into the 40s and low 50s.
Our weekend wave is trending a little farther north this morning. Generally, this is part of a low pressure circulation that’s moving from IA and northern MO into the OH and TN valleys, on its way to becoming yet another potential “nor’easter” for the east coast early next week. But its track is farther north, and so we have to allow for a few hundredths up to a quarter in all the way up to near the US 24 corridor, and we may even see some action north of that in far NW Indiana, coming out of the Chicago area. Still the movement of the moisture is southeast, meaning it should miss a large part of NE Indiana, and other areas as well. The second wrinkle is that colder air is in over the state as the moisture moves though, so we may have to keep an eye out for wet snows in northern Indiana with this, and rain farther south. Everything still looks to be done by afternoon.
We are dry for Saturday night, Sunday and Monday now, with sunshine and blue sky back in over the state for Sunday. Clouds build Monday, and by Monday night we see scattered showers moving in. The rains continue off and on through Tuesday, changing to snow late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night over northern Indiana, from US 24 northward. Strong north and northwest winds keep lake effect snow potential in here for early Wednesday morning, and we won’t rule out some accumulations up north through Wednesday. This will look similar to the setup we had a couple days ago on Tuesday: cold air and a nice lake effect set up…but this time we have more moisture in the atmosphere to start with.
Dry for next Thursday and Friday, but cool. Then a front starts to work in for the 24th that has plenty of south flow ahead of it. That should take temps slightly above normal, and then also allow for good rains to fill in later Saturday afternoon through Sunday. We can see .25”-.75” rains for the 24th-25th with coverage at 70%.
The extended pattern shows a strong circulation still for the 27th and 28th. Models suggest we can see the gulf bring up some nice moisture into this low, triggering moderate to heavy rains. It’s early but we are considering raising our rain totals for that part of the forecast period to 1-2 inches, based on a track right across from central MO to Toledo. There is plenty of time for this to change, but this may be a wet finish to the month of March.
The rest of the extended period will try and confirm that, as another front is being projected for arrival around the 30th.