Our forecast is largely unchanged this morning. Today and tomorrow look decent – cold, but with more sunshine. While we can rule out a flurry or two up north this morning, we generally are looking at several dry days in a row. Cold air is still dominant today and tomorrow. Temps will be a little warmer than yesterday, but we will still be a good 10 degrees below normal at the very least.
A system passes by to the north on Thursday that brings nice rains to the Great Lakes into southern Ontario. This will drag a little bit of moisture down across the northern third of Indiana. Moisture does not look as impressive here, and we think that barely a few hundredths of an inch will be seen, but we will allow up to .1” in one or two spots. Coverage will be around 60% of the region north of SR 14, generally the same as our forecast yesterday. We really seem to dodge the action farther south, with only a few clouds around. The biggest thing to notice for Thursday will be a shift in winds to the SW as that low passes by to the north. This will start a short 3 day period of significant warming across the region. Temps will shift to 10-15 degrees above normal for Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Strong winds (20-40 mph) drive the initial warm up for Thursday.
Clouds mix with some sun on Friday, but don’t discount an isolated shower or two. The bulk of the state stays precipitation free. Saturday sees the rain kick off in Ohio with the potential of .25”- 1” rains over 60% of the state. We do expect most of our action to be done by Saturday night, and Sunday should start to dry down. That being said…rains strengthen over Ohio as additional moisture surges north. IF the front slows at all, it will be very easy to see rains continue into Sunday morning, so the timing of the frontal passage is what we are watching very close. The map above shows rain totals through Sunday morning.
Dry Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of next week to finish out the 10 day period with high pressure in over the region. This is a Canadian high, though, so while temps may not be as cold as the start to this week, we are going to be much colder than the end of this week and start of the weekend. In fact, we think most of next week will have temps back in the 10-15 degrees below normal range.
The extended 11-15 day forecast window shows no significant change from yesterday. WE have strong low pressure complex in the grain plains for the 21st, and we still expect that system to spread .25”-1.25” rains into the eastern Corn Belt later for the 22nd and 23rd. Models suggest lingering clouds, cool air and sprinkles through the 24th, and then a cooler Canadian high back in for the balance of April. This forecast does not promote a rapid rise in soil temps.
The Official "weatherstud" Forecast Center 