The forecast pattern is unfolding as we have expected so far. In fact, temps were a little warmer yesterday than we had thought possible…but who are we to argue. We see the best warming today, tomorrow and Saturday on strong south flow and gusty winds.
Low pressure moved into the great lakes region last night, and is exiting to the east today across southern Ontario. This will trigger some light rains for a few hours this morning before giving way to better sunshine potential and a warm afternoon. Rain totals will end up ranging from .05”-.25” from US 30 northward before ending today, while we can see a few hundredths to a tenth from US 30 down to about SR 26. Winds pick up this afternoon and stay strong through tomorrow. Clouds will move in at times this afternoon through tomorrow as well, and they really begin to increase tomorrow afternoon ahead of our next front.
Significant rains start Saturday ahead of a strong cold front. The rain continues through Sunday. We are leaving rain totals alone at half to 2 inches over 90% of the state. The upper end of the range will come from stronger thunderstorms, and the best chance of those will be Saturday afternoon and evening, followed by another threat Sunday midday. Colder air is still slated to wrap in behind the front starting Sunday afternoon. Winds turn NW at 15-30 mph, and our late spring weather will change back to late winter in a hurry.
Clouds and cold air dominate Monday. In fact, we can see some sprinkles and flurries through the day. It will be a cloudy, gray, damp day to start off the following week.
Cold temps dig in for most of the rest of the week. We will be back to temperatures that average 10-15 degrees below normal, powered by NW winds. This will keep clouds coming at us out of the great lakes. Tuesday should be dry, but Wednesday we have a minor batch of moisture moving through that can bring up to .25” of rain. This will affect mostly the northern half of the state, from I-70 northward, and will only last a few hours. We are dry to finish the week.
The extended forecast window has 2 fronts moving through, and a third set to hit just before the turn of the month. A front has resurfaced around the 22nd into the 23rd with half to 1.25” rain potential. Then the second front moves through for the 25th with .25”-1” rains. Finally, a strong low coming out of the plains likely brings moisture in for the 28th with .3”-.8” rains. All three systems have a chance at hitting 70% of the state. Long term dry windows do not seem likely to develop, the way things look this morning.