Indiana Weather Outlook 4-20-18

Dry weather continues through Monday. We are putting precipitation into our forecast this morning as our next wave seems to be picking up just a little speed. Still, with yesterday turning out dry basically from just after sunrise, we still will be able to put 5 complete dry days on the books by the time Monday is done. Temps will be climbing slightly through the dry stretch, but will not really exceed normal. Most of this is due to the fact that we really do not see any significant south wind over the weekend, and see more easterly flow, which does not promote strong warming. The set up will produce some drying, but time will tell if it is enough. The same can be said about a rise in soil temperatures.

gfs_tprecip_indy_26.pngRains start to push up into southern Indiana next Tuesday mid-morning to mid-afternoon. From there, we see a slow spread north, to eventually bring scattered showers to 80% of the state for the balance of Tuesday and Wednesday. Moisture totals have a wide range, from .1” or less up north to a combined total of .8” in southern Indiana. This will interrupt field work in many locations, although we can make the argument that we might be able to skirt by and keep at it north of US 30. The map above shows rain totals through Wednesday evening.

Behind that moisture, we dry back down for 3, and in some cases 3 and a half days, for Thursday, Friday, Saturday and perhaps the first part of Sunday (29th). Then we kick off a very active pattern for the extended 11-16 day forecast window. Rains of .5”-1” move across the state with 90% coverage for the 29th and 30th. We take a brief break for Tuesday May 1st and also the 2nd, but we really still have plenty of clouds possible and a damp overall feel. Then heavy rains are back for the 3rd through the 5th, with half to 1.5” possible, and there is an outside chance for some isolated 2” totals. Coverage of those early may rains will be 100% of the state.

So, short term, this window we have through Monday is about the best we can do. Conditions will be breezy through the weekend, so spraying may be limited to early morning or early evening hours, if at all. This kind of forecast is one we need, but we need it for a bit longer than 5 days total.




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