Indiana Weather Outlook 4-27-18

A little bit of rain in the forecast for today, as a cold front works through the state. The best chances for moisture come this afternoon through midnight tonight. That does not mean action is limited to that time, we may see some scattered showers in NW Indiana already this morning…but the best chances of moisture are later today and tonight. We are leaving moisture totals at a few hundredths to .25” from I-70 northward. Coverage will be near 70% in the northern half of the state. We still think south of I-70, we see nothing.

All action is done by sunrise tomorrow. We should see a dry weekend emerge as clouds break up and sunshine returns. However, much colder air is in behind today’s front, and that means we see temps fall off. Tomorrow will be a good 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of year, and we will see temps dip to below freezing in parts of northern Indiana overnight Saturday night into Sunday. So, there can be some patchy frost. This will be aided by clearing Saturday night too. Temps begin to bounce on Sunday with sunshine, and we continue to climb from there. With southwest winds returning to start the week, we see temps climb to their first above normal level by next Tuesday and Wednesday as we knock on the door of 80 degrees up north and move into the mid and upper 80s farther south. This warming will be ahead of our next front for the second half of next week.

That front is on track to bring ran and thunderstorms starting Thursday. Now, as clouds build Wednesday, we won’t rule out some scattered action trying to drift in to parts of the state – of note will be NW and west central Indiana. But, generally, we are looking at the rain really picking up in frequency and intensity on Thursday. Rain totals Thursday will be from .25”-1.5” with coverage at 70% of the state. To get to the upper end of the range, thunderstorms will be needed and the best chances of those, as it stands right now, will be Thursday evening and overnight. Then, we see rains hold on, perhaps through the entire day Friday over southern Indiana. This can add an additional .25”-.75” from I-70 southward and a quarter inch or less farther north. Finally on Saturday we get all action out of Indiana pushing off to the east. WE should be dry for the weekend, but cooler once again. The map below shows total rains through the end of next week, the majority of which comes from that front next Thursday and Friday.

gfs_tprecip_indy_35.png

For the extended period, we have a minor disturbance moving over northern Indiana for the 7th, part of a stronger low in the upper Midwest. That likely triggers only a few scattered showers worth up to .25” and 40% coverage. Our front for the 9th looks stronger, bringing .25”-.75” to 80% of the state, and then we will be watching a wave coming out of OK and AR on Saturday the 12th, as it may hook right across the state before the day is done. That system would have potential for strong to severe thunderstorms if it holds together and tracks correctly.

After the front next week, as we mentioned, we cool off. We expect those cooler temps to hold through the extended window, where we see temps mostly normal to below normal.

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