Indiana Weather Outlook 5-3-18

Rain and thunderstorm action moves across the region today and tomorrow. Rains in the north kicked off a little early, with some strong thunderstorms in last night. This was driven mostly by the heating of the past couple of days, creating an unstable atmosphere. The front is still about 18-24 hours from passing. Of course, the rest of the state saw basically nothing last night. That being said, we believe that today will feature more general showers and garden variety thunderstorms. There is a threat of strong to severe thunderstorm action in central and southern IN this afternoon and evening, but not so much farther north this time around. Scattered showers linger through Friday. Rain totals remain at .25” to 1.25” for today and tomorrow, with coverage at 90%.  The map above shows our expected distribution of moisture combined through midnight Friday night.

ecmwf_tprecip_indy_12.png

We are dry for the balance of Friday evening through Saturday, and then the pattern gets a little more interesting. Scattered light showers move in Sunday afternoon with clouds ahead of that. Moisture is not all that impressive, but we won’t rule out up to .25” of rain over 60% of the state for Sunday afternoon-evening and overnight. There may be a little action Monday, but in general, we see clouds slowly give way to sun. Then we are dry Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rain on Thursday brings potential for .25”-1” over 90% of the state. Then we are dry for Friday. There is a chance for half to three quarter inch rains on Saturday, then going dry Sunday. Showers are around in the 11-16 day extended period for Monday the 14th with potential of .25”-1”, and then again possibly on Thursday, the 17th, with minor totals. The problem is, the only system out of those 4 that we have good model agreement on is the one for next Thursday. The rest of them are shown on different models at different times. However, the every other day to every 2 days set up is a common one we see in spring over the eastern Corn Belt, so we will not discount it at the moment. Even if we miss one of those, though, the result is the same…we do not see a long, consecutive dry period like we just got through at all over the coming 2 and a half weeks.

 

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