Indiana Weather Outlook 5-2-18

Today looks very similar to yesterday. The setup is the same. Strong southwest winds bring temps to above normal levels. Low humidity will bring more drying. This will be the last dry day before our front arrives.

We are leaving our forecast for tomorrow and Thursday entirely unchanged. Rain starts the day tomorrow morning as an approaching cold front works into Illinois. However, the front is relatively slow moving, as it still has a couple of pulses of low pressure to move up it through Friday midday. . Scattered showers hold through the rest of the day and through early afternoon Friday. The best chance for stronger rain and thunderstorms will be overnight tomorrow night, but the threat is minimal at this time. We are putting rain totals at .25” to 1.25”. That features a lowering of the lower range level, and the upper end stays the same. Even that inch and a quarter total will take some thunderstorms to get to. The most general rain totals remains in that half to 1 inch range.

We are dry for the balance of Friday through the Saturday. Clouds and a little moisture are back on Sunday, particularly in the afternoon. WE will keep an eye out for a few hundredths to a tenth or two over northern Indiana on Sunday, but think that coverage may end up being only around 50%. We are still not convinced this is a good disturbance to watch, but it has been pretty resilient over the past few model runs, so we are opening the door for some action.

We are dry again for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and the first part of Thursday. That dry stretch is why it we are very interested in the potential of rain on Sunday…because if we happen to miss it, we should get another field work window!

Rain is back for next Thursday afternoon (the 10th) and we see on and off moisture holding through the 13th. That multi day event can bring combined rain totals of half to 1.5” with 90% coverage. As that circulation moves off to the east, we see the remainder of the 11-16 day period mostly dry, as high pressure parks right over the Great Lakes. Temperatures still look to be early normal to slightly below normal under that high.

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