Clouds build through the day today as precipitation is on its way into the state. Action starts this afternoon in NW, north central and west central Indiana, and then spreads south and east form there. The best rains will fall this afternoon through midnight tonight. Rain totals will be from .25”-.75”. Strong thunderstorms do not look likely, which is why we are shaving a little off the top end of our previous rain range. The rains coming in a little faster mean that we see them leave a little faster too. Most action should be east into Ohio by shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning.
The rest of the day tomorrow is dry, with clouds giving way to sunshine. Temps will be a little cooler behind the frontal passage.
A secondary disturbance moves from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes for Friday and Saturday. This still looks to bring some rain into the northern half to third of the state Friday. Rain totals will be from a few hundredths to a quarter inch or so, with coverage at 80% of areas from US 24 northward. Between US 24 and I-70, we won’t rule out a shower or two, but don’t think it will be a big event. South of I-70 we see nothing. There is a similar tendency on Saturday too, with clouds and a few scattered showers from US 30 northward, but the rest of the state is dry. The Saturday rains can bring another few hundredths to .2”
On Sunday, a cold front sweeps through bringing precipitation back statewide. However, the coverage does not look as impressive this morning, and we think there could be some holes in the rain pattern. Right now we are paring back moisture to .25”-1”, and coverage back to 60% of the state. Thunderstorms do not look to be as strong and as moisture laden, and we do not see rains hitting the same areas over and over. So, this is going to be a friendlier rain event, at least the way it looks right now. An increase in energy or moisture can easily bring back thunderstorms, so we are not closing the book on this forecast yet…but we are looking at a more subdued system in our opinion. Rains linger into early Monday.
Dry for the balance of Monday and Tuesday. WE should see temperatures rebound. Wednesday is a little bit of a sticking point in our forecast this morning. WE have been keeping next Wednesday dry. However, a couple of models are trying to advance our next system forward about 12-24 hours from the 17th into the 16th. We want to see additional and confirming model runs before making a change. Either way, there is a system in there that can bring up to half an inch over about 70% of the state. Then we are dry for the balance of the 10 day window, right up to the 20th.
No change in our extended 11-16 day forecast window this morning. We continue to watch a cold front sweeping into the state for the afternoon of the 20th bringing rains of half to 1.5” over 90% of the state, and then a reinforcing wave of energy brings additional rains up to 2” for late the 21st through the 22nd. Given the recent system performance, we would suggest that these rain totals likely will be lowered as these systems get closer to arrival.